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Tag: Strategy

  • Trump’s Tariffs: Key Updates and Ongoing Debate

    Trump’s Tariffs: Key Updates and Ongoing Debate

    One of President Trump’s myriad “first-day” promises, the plan to leverage tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China drew attention on the campaign trail. Two weeks into his second term, the campaign promise came to fruition via three consecutive executive orders, sparking economic debate and what some are calling a trade war with neighboring countries. 

    The Executive Orders

    On February first, the White House released an emergency memo announcing new tariffs as a means to combat “the extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs”. The declaration alluded to executive orders from the same day which invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Collectively, these orders levied 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on all goods from China. The first order carves out a smaller 10% tariff on energy resources imported from Canada to limit domestic energy shortages.

    Diplomatic Standoff and Temporary Delay

    Just before the tariffs were set to take effect, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau negotiated a 30-day delay, agreeing to several conditions. The 30-day window sets a tight deadline for implementing the following measures, with the potential for future U.S. tariffs lingering in the case of failed implementation:

    Canada:

    • Appointing a Fentanyl Czar: Canada will designate a high-level official responsible for coordinating efforts to combat fentanyl production and distribution.
    • Designation of Drug Cartels as Terrorist Organizations: This move aims to enhance legal frameworks for tackling organized crime.
    • Intelligence Sharing and Funding: Canada will implement an intelligence directive targeting fentanyl and organized crime, supported by substantial funding.
    • Border Security Enhancements: Canada has pledged to bolster its border security measures to prevent illegal crossings and drug smuggling.

    Mexico:

    • Deployment of National Guard: Mexico will send 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to prevent drug trafficking and illegal immigration.
    • Cooperation on Weapons Trafficking: Mexico will work jointly with the U.S. to curb the trafficking of weapons into Mexico.

    China did not negotiate a delay, and instead retaliated immediately with its own tariffs on American energy and agricultural imports. China also filed an official dispute in the World Trade Organization.

    During negotiations for the 30-day-delay, Canada also retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. goods. On February 4th, Prime Minister Trudeau implemented a CA$155 billion tariff package that will impact myriad products including steel and plastic, household appliances, and coffee. Mexico has not yet proposed retaliatory tariffs. 

    Prospective Impacts

    The Trump administration’s use of tariffs is not new; in his first term, President Trump levied considerable tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, impacting China, India, the European Union, and other trade partners. However, President Trump’s recent executive orders have drawn increased attention for their novel scope. This is the first time in American history that a sitting President has invoked IEEPA to leverage tariffs, bypassing the formal investigation process required under other tariff-related laws like Section 232. Supporters emphasize that the use of IEEPA allows President Trump to act more efficiently in light of the pressing opioid crisis, while critics warn that using IEEPA to implement tariffs risks unchecked executive authority. 

    Economically, some experts warn that this round of tariffs could raise consumer prices significantly more than the tariffs from the last Trump administration due to their expanded scope, targeting of consumer goods, and ongoing inflation. A report from the Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs will function as a hidden tax, potentially costing households hundreds of dollars annually. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the tariffs “the beginning of a golden age of higher costs for American families”, warning that they would strain relations with allies and worsen supply chain issues. On the other hand, some argue that Trump’s tariff strategy has already succeeded in forcing Canada and Mexico to the negotiating table, leading to unprecedented commitments to address border security and the drug trade. They emphasize that the proposed tariffs were a strategic move to force cooperation from neighboring countries on pressing issues, despite the short-term economic cost. 

    Will the Tariffs Actually Be Imposed?

    While the 30-day delay provides an opportunity for Canada and Mexico to fulfill their commitments, President Trump has stated that he fully intends to impose tariffs if they fail to act decisively. Moreover, on February 13th, President Trump signed a memo calling for research on retaliatory tariffs, signaling that the White House is preparing to impose additional tariffs on nations like Canada and China that initially retaliated with tariffs of their own.

  • Failures and Successes of NATO

    Failures and Successes of NATO

    Introduction

    NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a military and political alliance founded in 1949 and dedicated to ensuring the security and freedom of its members. As the Cold War took shape and the Soviet Union threatened European governments, the founding countries of NATO determined that a transatlantic alliance was necessary to both deter Soviet aggression and promote political integration rather than militarism. In the decades since, NATO has grown in structure and members into the organization it is today. The primary political council of NATO is the North Atlantic Council (NAC), and it is chaired by NATO’s Secretary General. Each member has a seat on this council and all decisions are made by consensus, so that any decision made by NATO reflects the will of all members. If a decision reached under the NAC or a political subcommittee has military implications, the Military Committee is responsible for giving expert advice to the NAC and for organizing and carrying out NATO’s military operations. 

    The United States is the largest financial contributor to NATO and a key member of the alliance. The alliance promotes democratic ideas and peaceful conflict resolution around the world. Countries looking to join must have a functioning democratic government and a commitment to peacefully resolve conflict. With a large network of members and resources, NATO aims to hold its members to a standard of democracy and intervenes to defuse conflicts before they happen. However, there is continuous debate over how to handle NATO member states experiencing democratic backsliding. In addition, conflict is deterred by the collective defense aspect of NATO, where an attack on one member is an attack on all members. Despite its shortcomings and the challenges it faces, it is often considered to be one of the most successful international alliances in history.

    There are currently thirty members of NATO and several countries are aspiring to join. Other countries are engaged in working partnerships with the alliance, while not being members.

    Source: Statista

    A Brief History

    • 1949: As communism spread across Europe, and the Soviet’s influence increased, the United States’ desire for a security treaty with Western Europe outside of the UN’s Security Council (where the USSR held veto power) led to the creation of NATO.
    • 1955: In response to West Germany joining NATO, the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern European countries formed the Warsaw Pact.
    • 1991: The Soviet Union collapsed, leading to the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. The North Atlantic Cooperation Council was created as a platform for cooperation between old Warsaw Pact members and NATO.
    • 1995: NATO became involved in its first ever crisis response operation, leading the Implementation Force, a peace enforcement force during the Bosnian War.
    • 2001: 9/11 resulted in NATO invoking Article 5 of the Washington Treaty for the first, and only, time. Article 5 states that “an attack against one… shall be considered an attack against them all.” NATO launched several counter-terrorism initiatives and deployed military forces to Afghanistan.
    • 2003: NATO takes control of the International Security Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, a UN-mandated security force responsible for ensuring the Afghan government’s authority.
    • 2014: NATO suspends most relations with Russia over their illegal annexation of Crimea.

    Successes

    1. The Cold War: During the Cold War, NATO’s efforts were centered around three goals: controlling the Soviet Union, dissuading militant nationalism and communism across Europe, and establishing greater European political unity. The alliance played a major role in maintaining the tense peace of the Cold War and ensuring the war remained ‘cold’. With the end of the war, NATO worked to further maintain peace. They established the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and, in 1997, NATO encouraged bilateral discussion between the United States and Russia through the Founding Act.
    2. Modern Day Protection: Today, NATO continues to provide a level of protection for its members. Since its founding, a NATO member has only been attacked and evoked Article 5 once (the United States after 9/11). Member countries are afforded collective security, just as NATO originally sought to do. Additionally, NATO has created a global network of more than 40 countries and other partners around the globe—ranging from the African Union to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). This network provides NATO support in its crisis management operations, ranging from aid operations such as its delivery of relief supplies after the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake to counter-terrorism operations in the Mediterranean and the coast of Somalia.
    3. The Ukraine War: NATO has publicly denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine and NATO member countries and allies have provided substantial aid to Ukraine. The United States has contributed roughly $54 billion to Ukraine. Other countries have provided humanitarian aid and support for the more than 5 million refugees of the war. The Ukraine war has reaffirmed the importance of NATO, and even spurred Finland and Sweden to increase their efforts to join the alliance. These countries’ membership would strengthen the alliance militarily through increased air and submarine capabilities, allowing for NATO to further dissuade Russian aggression.

    Failures

    1. Funding Issues: In 2006, NATO Defense Ministers agreed to a commitment that 2% of their countries’ GDP would be allocated towards defense spending. However, the majority of NATO members do not meet this goal. Currently, the United States accounts for over two-thirds of the alliance’s defense spending.
    2. Afghanistan: After 9/11, NATO was a considerable presence in Afghanistan, and their forces were crucial in their support of the Afghan government. When President Donald Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban in 2020, both NATO and American troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan. What followed was an immediate fall in the Afghan government at the hands of the Taliban. Despite the two decades NATO spent in Afghanistan, no long term solution was reached, and without their presence, the nation’s former government could not survive.
    3. Right-Wing Nationalism: With the spread of right-wing nationalism across Europe, discontent with international institutions like NATO and the EU grows. If right-wing nationalist movements continue to increase in popularity across Europe, there could be increased calls for countries to leave institutions like NATO. The challenge NATO faces now is how to combat and address their criticism, and how to unify a divided Europe.
    4. Russian Aggression: Despite supposed verbal promises to Russia that it would not expand to the east, NATO has admitted several former Warsaw Pact members since the fall of the Soviet Union. Now, with NATO members bordering Russia and the promise of further expansion, Russia feels increasingly threatened. The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO has been cited as a significant reason for Vladmir Putin’s invasion of the country.

    The Future of NATO

    As the war in Ukraine continues, NATO is more relevant now than it has been in decades. NATO plays a role in distributing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the alliance will be influential in the outcome of the war. NATO serves as a means of collective defense and security against Russia and the increasing threat to international order that they represent. With debates over how NATO can best assist Ukraine, and how to best avoid conflicts such as this in the future, NATO will have to revisit its current deterrence strategy in the upcoming years. Also at play is the growing role of China on the world stage. NATO must consider that the world does not revolve solely around the Euro-Atlantic region, and address questions about its role outside this region and across the globe. NATO continues to be essential towards not only the security of its members including the United States, but to the world.