Author: Rosalinde Nebiolo

  • Introduction to US-Ireland Relations

    Introduction to US-Ireland Relations

    Source: CIA World Factbook

    Ireland, known as the Emerald Isle, is home to more than 5 million people and boasts a rich and distinct history. Once a British Empire colony, Ireland has been politically divided since 1921 into Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an independent nation. The Reformation in England and the separation between Henry VIII and the Catholic Church in Rome deeply impacted Ireland. Tensions arose due to King James I’s strategy of urging Protestants to settle in the northern province of Ulster, aiming to prompt the Irish population to convert from Catholicism.

    Today, Ireland maintains strong cultural ties with the United States as a result of mass migration due to famine from 1845-1855. Recent presidents have reiterated the shared sense of cultural identity that extends to many members of the Irish-American community as a result of the diaspora. Ireland has been a member of the United Nations since 1955 and a NATO member since 1973. Brexit, the decision by England to leave the European Union, seemingly re-ignited the debate surrounding the status of Northern Ireland for many politicians and scholars, demonstrating the ongoing tensions between the Republic of Ireland in the south and Northern Ireland. 

    Quick Facts

    Overview of History with the US 

    The foundation of the modern Irish state can be traced back to the 1900s and World War I. The desire for Irish nationhood, similar to other emerging nations, was fueled by the principles outlined in former US President Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points and the establishment of the League of Nations. From 1919 to 1921, various factions in Ireland engaged in a violent struggle for independence. Sinn Fein, meaning “We Ourselves,” emerged in 1905 as the political arm of the paramilitary IRA (Irish Republican Army). This group advocated for a unified Irish state and separation from the UK.

    The party proclaimed an Irish Republic, which was met with resistance from the British administration and the predominantly Protestant unionist province of Ulster (now known as Northern Ireland). In reaction, the Irish Republican Army was established to combat the British administration. Since their inception, both Sinn Fein and the IRA have experienced divisions leading to various splinter groups and internal changes. Following negotiations that led to separation from the UK, Ireland’s lower house of parliament, known as Dáil Éireann, became part of the League of Nations in 1923, marking the creation of the Irish Free State. However, the divisions between the northern and southern regions, as well as between Protestant and Catholic communities, persisted.

    During the 1800s, potatoes were vital for sustenance in Ireland. The Potato Famine began when a disease wiped out most of the Irish potato crops. Many believed that the British government provided inadequate assistance, leading to widespread starvation. The scarcity of resources resulted in a severe crisis. Around 1.5 million people emigrated to America between 1845 and 1855. These migrants encountered numerous challenges, including bias and poverty, as they gradually assimilated into American society. The narrative of Irish-Americans progressing from marginalized individuals to holding the highest office in the country remains a source of cultural pride. These connections have played a significant role in American diplomacy with Ireland. Presently, the Irish-American community maintains a strong connection to their Irish heritage. This bond between Ireland and Irish-Americans has impacted American policymaking, prompting leaders to employ diplomatic approaches to address conflicts. As of 2021, over 31 million Americans identified themselves as having Irish ancestry. Several US presidents, including John F.Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden, have openly discussed their Irish-American heritage while in office.

    The Troubles, lasting from the 1960s to the 1990s, began with a civil rights movement in Northern Ireland led by the Catholic minority. They faced inequalities compared to the Protestant majority. The situation escalated into violence, with both sides contributing. This conflict heavily impacted Irish politics, especially given the ongoing debate about whether Ireland should secede from the UK—a desire largely held by the Republic of Ireland but not by Northern Ireland. The issue was complicated by acts of terrorism by factions of the IRA and other groups.

    Irish-American communities during that time were torn between backing Irish unification and independence and feeling uneasy about supporting further violence by the IRA. President Clinton and the US government played a pivotal role in the Good Friday Agreement, a significant post-Cold War diplomatic initiative. This agreement successfully involved Sinn Fein in legitimate democratic processes. It achieved important milestones such as the disarmament of all parties and increased representation for the Catholic minority. It allowed Northern Ireland to remain a part of the UK. Although the Good Friday Agreement didn’t completely resolve all tensions among Ireland’s population, it paved the way for a more lasting peace. 

    US Interests 

    Ireland and the United States share deep cultural and economic ties. The two nations have maintained diplomatic ties since 1924, and President Clinton implemented substantial economic cooperation efforts that played a crucial role in stabilizing Ireland. This led to a strong and ongoing economic collaboration that continues to this day.

    • Ireland’s foreign direct investment in the US in 2019 was approximately 343.5 billion dollars.
    • More than 900 US-owned firms operate in Ireland, including Google and Facebook. 

    Ireland has pushed a foreign policy that centers peace, multilateralism, and military neutrality. Through the UN, Ireland has promoted peacekeeping and aid to crises in nations including Afghanistan, Syria, and Ethiopia. These support similar strategic interests of the United States to maintain peacekeeping efforts in these regions. Furthermore, Ireland has also given $134 million in nonlethal aid to Ukraine. 

    Brexit complicated the peace created through the Good Friday Agreement as the UK left the European Union. It necessitated a customs border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which many feared would reignite the conflict by encouraging remilitarization in the area. The crisis was averted with a special trading status, but is not fully resolved. The United States’ strategic interests lie in the larger European communal security and integration as a transatlantic partner. Furthermore, the US has interests in maintaining the agreement as a historic success in American diplomacy.

  • Introduction to NATO Peacekeeping in Kosovo

    Introduction to NATO Peacekeeping in Kosovo

    Kosovo is a highly contested area between Serbians and Albanians,who both view Kosovo as ancestral land. Control of Kosovo passed between the Ottoman Empire, Serbia, and Yugoslavia throughout the 1800’s to 1900’s, and Kosovo declared formal independence from Serbia in February of 2008

    Key Dates

    • 1946: Kosovo is absorbed into Yugoslavia.  
    • 1974: Kosovo is given autonomous status within Yugoslavia. 
    • 1990: Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic removes autonomous status, putting Kosovo under Serbian rule. Protests begin
    • 1996: Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) increases attacks, followed by a crackdown by the Serbian government. 
    • 1999: NATO begins aerial attacks on Serbian targets, Yugoslav and Serbian forces begin a campaign of ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians. Eventually a peace agreement is signed and a UN administration takes over.
    • 2008: Kosovo declares independence.   

    Crisis and Ethnic Conflict

    Ethnic conflict in Kosovo largely stems from historic systemic grievances between ethnic Serbs and Albanians. Authoritarian leadership, especially under the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary capitalized on tensions between the two groups, often favoring one above the other for political reasons. Furthermore, both Kosovar Serbian and Albanian political factions perceived the situation in Kosovo as an irredentist conflict. This implies that both groups assert their right to unite Kosovo with other territories inhabited by their respective ethnic majorities, such as Serbia or a ‘Greater Albania‘. In such cases, diplomatic solutions are difficult to achieve. 

    The state of the conflict in Yugoslavia in 1998 concerned leadership in NATO, the UN, and the international community. As Yugoslavia broke apart, the budding nation-states often disputed territory and rights as ethnic groups struggled to determine the shape of the new governments. Conflict in Kosovo further destabilized the Balkans during the late 1990’s. Despite an established cease-fire, ongoing violence prompted NATO leadership to opt for military intervention. Prior to the intervention, indicators of ethnic cleansing included actions like widespread displacements and confiscation of identification and property documents. By the time peace terms were reached, numerous governments and organizations estimated the death toll to be in the thousands.

    NATO Intervention 

    Before NATO’s intervention, numerous efforts were made by the international community to negotiate and establish cease-fires. In January 1999, six nations (France, Italy, Germany, Russia, UK, and US) convened for international mediation in the conflict. However, their attempts to secure an agreement between Kosovar Serbs and Albanians proved unsuccessful. Concurrently, NATO had issued a warning to the parties that the organization was prepared to carry out air strikes if the violence persisted.

    In March 1999, NATO initiated air strikes as part of Operation Allied Force. These strikes were carried out without a UN resolution, sparking debates about the operation’s legitimacy. The air strikes primarily targeted Serbian military strategic targets such as weapons, communication and supply lines, as well as oil sources. During this period, significant humanitarian aid was provided to the refugees alongside these efforts. President Milosevic eventually opted for peace negotiations in early June 1999 upon recognizing the campaign’s failure. Despite his regime’s focus on asserting Serbian dominance, the incurred losses were substantial. Since then, NATO peacekeeping troops have continued their presence. However, tensions escalated in 2023 due to Serbian protests against elected ethnic Albanians in local government, leading to clashes between demonstrators and NATO peacekeeping forces.

    US Interests and Reaction 

    The United States is a strong ally of Kosovo, having supported the NATO intervention in 1999. The recent rise in tensions has raised concerns among the majority of Congress about potential instability in the heart of Europe. Additionally, the US made substantial investments in providing aid for the reconstruction of Kosovo.

    While the US aims to support Kosovo and maintain its role as a mediator alongside Russia, recent use of force is viewed unfavorably by policymakers as it intensified tensions. Decisionmakers are likely concerned about the potential for a second front of destabilization in Europe, especially with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

    International Reactions 

    In 1999, public opinion in Europe regarding the airstrikes was varied. While many countries saw the Balkan conflict as a threat to European security and favored some form of action, there were differing stances. For instance, France withheld support due to the absence of a UN mandate. Meanwhile, neighboring nations like Greece, while not endorsing military intervention, provided medical assistance and peacekeeping troops to NATO, believing that military force wouldn’t resolve the dispute.

    Countries in the region, such as Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Albania, often responded based on their strongest domestic ethnic affiliations. Even if they didn’t have the political will to participate in the airstrikes, neighboring states still assisted through humanitarian aid, accepting refugees, granting NATO airspace access, or supporting diplomatic resolutions. Russia strongly criticized the NATO air strikes, and public opinion largely favored Serbia, given their deep historical, cultural, and political connections. Moscow leadership was unsure about the extent of their influence in neighboring countries post-Soviet Union dissolution. As air strikes persisted and talk of a ground invasion arose, Russian leadership, led by Boris Yeltsin, became worried about the potential economic repercussions of the conflict on Russia’s relations with the West. Under Russia’s influence, Milosevic eventually halted the campaign against Kosovar Albanians.

  • Pros and Cons of 2023 NATO Military Aid to Ukraine

    Pros and Cons of 2023 NATO Military Aid to Ukraine

    Introduction

    The North Atlantic Trade Organization, NATO, has maintained a strong relationship with Ukraine since the 1990s. NATO allies uphold that Ukrainian sovereignty is a shared security goal. The invasion of Crimea in 2014 furthered cooperation, especially through the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP). This aid package has aimed to improve Ukraine’s security and defense sectors through military improvement programs. Since Russia’s February, 2022 invasion, NATO has been a crucial partner in organizing support and aid for Ukraine. Aid includes both lethal and non-lethal aid, from medical aid to bullets to armed troops. However, the scope of aid from NATO lies mostly in weapons as Ukraine cannot invoke the necessary articles to request troops because it is not a NATO member. Individual countries have also provided substantial aid and implemented sanctions against Russia. 

    NATO Aid in 2023

    • January 20th: NATO announced a joint effort with the United States to provide air defenses and armored vehicles. This is seen as crucial support to counter frequent Russian missile attacks.
    • February 7th: Denmark, Germany, and Netherlands announced the Leo A5 Initiative to give Ukraine 100 Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks and training. This in addition to recent agreements from Germany to supply Leopard 2 tanks. Both Leopard tanks are easy to use and train soldiers to operate. 
    • February 8th: NATO leadership disclosed in a press conference that NATO allies are sending additional aid including armored infantry vehicles, Javelin anti tank missiles, artillery, ammunition, and rockets for HIMARs, an American rocket launcher.

    US and Other Support

    The United States has given the most aid thus far to Ukraine. The Biden Administration has announced three major military aid packages:

    • January 6th: The Biden Administration committed to a $3.075 billion security package including artillery rounds and ammunition, air defense capabilities, and armored vehicles. The package includes financing towards capacity building and modernization of Ukraine’s Army.   
    • February 3rd: The Biden Administration authorized a Presidential Drawdown of $425 million and $1.75 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). USAI allows the federal government to procure materials or weapons from industry rather than Department of Defense supplies, allowing the government to maintain support without depleting US military supplies.     
    • March 3rd: The Secretary of State announced a $400 million aid package to Ukraine including ammunition, equipment, and air defense capabilities. 

    Aid from Europe

    • The European Union has provided lethal aid for the first time in its history. Recent aid has included arms and military training. 
    • Other individual countries have sent aid and support to Ukraine. Finland, a country seeking to join NATO, announced a $400 million package on January 20th which included heavy artillery and munitions.

    Key Benefits

    US support for Ukraine indicates to American allies that the United States upholds its security promises. The war in Ukraine has revitalized defense efforts from European countries and caused them to increase their contributions to NATO. The increased cooperation has strengthened both diplomatic and military trust between European nations through organizations like NATO and the EU. In addition, as European nations turn away from Russian oil and gas imports, nations are potentially increasing the use of alternative, low emission energy sources like solar and wind that are better for the environment. As a result, European nations may achieve their climate and clean energy goals sooner than expected.  

    Key Concerns 

    There are noted concerns from policymakers and the larger American population, alike, about funding a war without a clear end. 

    • With fears of a recession, some may believe the current flow of aid may be unsustainable for the US government long term. American military spending annually outpaces any other government, and continued aid may be unsustainable politically.  
    • The greatest concern for NATO allies is the implications of escalation. US and Russian leaders have discussed nuclear weapons. Concerns about avoiding escalation informed the decision not to enact a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A no-fly zone would have effectively prevented air strikes but global leadership feared risking nuclear retaliation from Russia.   
    • US spending on Ukraine could have implications for other potential conflicts such as the ability to respond if China moves to forcibly reclaim Taiwan, which remains a national security concern.    

    The Future 

    The end of the war in Ukraine is so far uncertain, but there are moments for hope for peace in Ukraine. There are many calls for peace talks and a ceasefire as casualties continue to rise, which include a recent UN resolution that calls for an immediate Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. The General Assembly has voted to successfully pass the resolution, which may carry political consequences for Russia and their allies. The resolution is a declaration of the General Assembly’s will or opinion, and not legally binding. However, the resolution may be used to encourage a ceasefire, peace talks, or even justify continued aid in the future. 

  • Rosalinde Nebiolo, Tufts University

    Rosalinde Nebiolo, Tufts University

    Rosalinde Nebiolo is an incoming Masters of Law and Diplomacy student at Tufts University. Her research interests include security studies as well as the role of global institutions and identity politics in conflict resolution. Previously, her research included Russian foreign policy, the implications of a Chinese world order, and a survey on regional terrorism in Southeast Asian countries. In her free time, Rosalinde enjoys reading books and experimenting with coffee. 

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