ACE

Author: Julia Nahm

  • US Response to the Recent Rise in Climate Refugees

    US Response to the Recent Rise in Climate Refugees

    Introduction

    As global temperatures rise, climate change is causing millions of people to be displaced from their homes each year. This phenomenon, known as “climate refugees,” is driven by flooding, fires, natural disasters, and resource scarcity. The increasing number of climate refugees is leading to intensified migration patterns across international borders, posing economic, social, and political challenges globally. It is estimated that by 2050, about 1.2 billion people are at risk of displacement due to climate disasters. Addressing this worldwide threat of displacement requires understanding the problem and implementing proposed solutions.

    Defining the Problem

    In the United States, climate refugees from Central and Latin America, as well as internally displaced climate refugees, are significantly impacting migration patterns. Rising sea levels and increased natural disasters have already forced thousands of Americans to relocate within the country. Experts project that about 162 million Americans, nearly half the population, may experience a decline in their environmental quality, leading to increased migration flows. Additionally, citizens of Latin and Central American countries affected by extreme weather are seeking asylum at the U.S. border. In the most extreme climate scenarios, experts estimate that over 30 million migrants could head towards the U.S. border in the next 30 years.

    Climate migration flows are expected to impact both the United States and Europe, with Europe likely to receive higher numbers of climate refugees. The countries most often left by climate migrants are primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa region. The influx of migrants poses economic and geopolitical challenges for host regions. European countries like Greece and Italy have already faced strains on economic resources, affecting their social and political spheres. These estimates underscore the severity of the climate refugee issue on an international scale.

    While global migrant flows are increasing, the critical issue lies in how international governments respond to these numbers. Climate refugees, facing homelessness and food insecurity, are on the frontlines of the climate emergency, often lacking resources to adapt to harsh environments. The influx of migrants strains host countries economically and politically, as they struggle to provide essential resources like housing, food, water, and safety. Disagreements over refugee rights can lead to political turmoil, posing a threat to the overall stability of host countries.

    The main challenge governments face when dealing with climate refugees is legal. According to international law, a refugee is someone who faces persecution based on specific grounds, but climate refugees were not considered during the writing of refugee protections. As a result, they lack internationally recognized legal status as refugees and do not have a real right to asylum. This legal gap hinders governments from adequately addressing the growing number of climate refugees.

    The International Response

    The EU recognizes climate migration as a strategic issue and calls for funding and responses from member countries. The European Parliament has acknowledged the connection between climate change and migration, defining the climate crisis as one of the most important issues in the EU. A team of researchers has been designated to investigate the issue and propose an approach to address climate-induced displacement and migration. However, there is currently no EU legislation specifically providing asylum for climate refugees.

    In 2021, President Biden published a progressive report officially correlating climate change and migration, marking a significant shift in U.S. government policy. This report signaled the government’s willingness to lead in climate migration legislation internationally. Additionally, the Biden Administration expanded Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in 2021, a status that offers temporary protection from deportation for refugees from countries facing war, natural disasters, or other crises. While TPS currently benefits refugees from certain countries like El Salvador and Haiti, experts argue that expanding TPS to include more climate refugees would be a positive step in addressing climate migration flows. Overall, these initiatives demonstrate the U.S. government’s commitment to finding solutions for climate refugees.

    The US government has taken proactive steps to address internal migrant flows through national programs and funding. The 2021 White House report outlines these efforts, which include building local and national capacity to use climate information in decision-making, supporting adaptation to climate change impacts, and assisting migrants, displaced individuals, and host communities. Additionally, the US provides funding to organizations like the UNHCR, Red Cross, displacement monitoring centers, and others working with climate refugees. These initiatives align with the Biden administration’s mission to help climate refugees seek asylum and safety, while also promoting education and infrastructure to support American communities in a changing climate.

    Pros and Cons of US Response

    The US government’s policies reflect a committed response to the prevalence of climate change and its impact on migration flows. The expansion of TPS by the Biden administration signals a dedicated interest in addressing the issue and exploring potential solutions. However, it is crucial for governments worldwide to recognize the legal status of climate refugees. The United States has the opportunity to collaborate with global powers to find comprehensive solutions to climate migration. While TPS is a positive step, it remains a temporary measure with eligibility restrictions. Overall, while the US response is proactive, there is a need for more robust legislation to address the growing challenge of climate-induced migrant flows effectively.

  • Failures and Successes of the Paris Agreement

    Failures and Successes of the Paris Agreement

    Introduction

    The Paris Agreement, passed at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015, is an international legislation addressing climate change. Though not the first of its kind, it has had a significant impact on the geopolitical landscape. Despite facing setbacks and failures, the agreement has proven to be effective in addressing climate change, considering its historical context and political perspectives.

    Background

    Climate change is defined by the United Nations as “long term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns”, a pattern that has accelerated as a result of human influence. Climate change has been at the heart of political differences for over a decade, as individuals, businesses, and governments try to balance economic needs with environmental protection. The Kyoto Protocol of 2005 is a contract that operationalized the United Nations Framework on the Convention of Climate Change, and it was one of the first acknowledgements of climate change as an international problem. It set the stage for the Paris Agreement by setting goals to limit greenhouse gasses and mitigate the effects of climate change and uniting the international community to collaborate against a common problem. 

    The United Nations created 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) in 2012, which are social, economic, and political goals that revolve around international climate vulnerability. These goals were created as a call to action for the United Nations to work towards a sustainable future. However, there were many other aspects of climate change that the protocol and goals did not address, leading to the creation of the Paris Agreement. This agreement encouraged world leaders to take action against climate change and mitigate the consequences of this global problem.

    Introduction to the Paris Agreement

    The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 by 194 parties, including the United States, is an international treaty where each country commits to following the agreement’s regulations and taking steps to mitigate the effects of climate change. The agreement’s main goal is to limit the global average temperature increase to below 2 degrees Celsius and establish an action-oriented framework.

    Countries follow a 5-year cycle, during which they submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining their national climate action plans. These plans are tailored to each country’s unique economic, political, and social situation and aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. NDCs represent each party’s mandatory call to action.

    The Agreement also provides financial and technological assistance to signatory countries to help them implement their climate action plans effectively. Developed countries are expected to take the lead in providing financial support due to their greater resources and capabilities. This support framework is customized to meet each country’s specific needs, encouraging both developed and developing nations to take action.

    The Paris Agreement includes an Enhanced Transparency Framework, where countries report their climate actions and progress. After a review, they receive recommendations for future plans. Overall, the Paris Agreement is a comprehensive and effective piece of legislation that urges countries to make a significant difference in combating the effects of climate change.

    Successes

    Previously, experts predicted that global temperature would rise about 7 degrees Fahrenheit. However, since the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the previous prediction has decreased to a global rise of about 5 degrees Fahrenheit. This marks a major step in the fight against climate change. However, it is not clear if the Paris Agreement directly led to the reforms which reduced temperature predictions, or if government actors and activists who were already mobilizing against climate change would have undertaken the same actions regardless of the international agreement.

    The Paris Agreement achieved notable success by encouraging countries like Japan, China, and the EU to set carbon neutrality goals and embrace net zero targets. Net zero means each country commits to reducing emissions close to zero, with any remaining emissions reabsorbed without significant environmental impact. This progress has led to substantial emission cuts and efforts to mitigate climate change. Other countries are inspired to adopt similar goals, promoting global sustainability.

    Another success of the Paris Agreement lies in creating a collaborative community of countries. The United States, as a member, works alongside other signatory parties to combat climate change. The European Council actively promoted all EU member states to join the Agreement and take action against climate change. This unity among EU countries and the United States in aligning with the agreement and working together has contributed to the success of achieving this goal.

    Failures

    The main challenge associated with many international agreements is enforceability. While the Paris Agreement requires monitoring and reporting of carbon emissions, it does not have the ability to force a country to reduce emissions. Most actions related to reducing carbon emissions have to be passed by legislative bodies or heads of states, and agreements with the international community come second to those forms of decision making. If a country who signs onto the Paris Agreement fails to meet its obligations, other countries might use soft power to coerce actions, via sanctions or diplomatic means. However, major powers like the U.S. and China are less susceptible to this form of peer pressure, and they are also the countries currently responsible for the most emissions. 

    Some also question whether the Paris Agreement goes far enough in setting ambitious goals for carbon emission reductions. In order to receive widespread support, some costly and aggressive elements had to be abandoned. Based on the policies which have been enacted, the Earth is currently not on track to stay below the stated goal of a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature.

  • Julia Nahm, Lafayette College

    Julia Nahm, Lafayette College

    Julia is a rising senior at Lafayette College majoring in International Affairs and Government & Law, and minoring in Spanish. Her studies are accompanied by a thematic concentration in Human Rights & Social Justice, and a regional concentration in Europe. Julia became interested in foreign policy research after experimenting with research during her classes in academic settings, working with research specifically in the Balkan region. Furthermore, Julia studied abroad this past semester in Spain which furthered her interest in the region of Europe. In the future, Julia hopes to pursue a career in a non-governmental organization, specifically working in foreign policy research. She is very excited to work alongside her peers at ACE, and is enthusiastic about the work she will complete this summer.

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