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Author: Joey Do

  • Russia-Ukraine invasion and Southeast Asian Responses

    Russia-Ukraine invasion and Southeast Asian Responses

    Russia-Ukraine invasion explained

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in early 2014, and tensions have slowly escalated ever since. Last year, the Russian government started sending troops and placing resources in proximity to Ukraine’s border. In December 2021, Russia issued a set of demands calling on NATO to cease expansion to Eastern and Central Europe and reject Ukraine’s application to join the treaty organization. NATO did not accept these demands and implemented sanctions on Russia in response. The United States and other NATO member states also supplied Ukraine with weapons. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has displaced eight millions of people internally and caused thousands of deaths.

    In response, President Biden declared Putin’s actions “unprovoked and unjustified.” The United States and NATO nations implemented further sanctions, and the U.S and other G7 countries committed to continue military support. In an United Nations emergency session, 141 out of 193 states voted to condemn Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine and called for immediate ceasefire. Caught between Russia, China, and the United States, many Southeast Asian nations remained in the minority that stayed neutral and/or supported Russia.

    ASEAN’s relationship with China and the United States

    Southeast Asian countries have historically had to balance interests with China and the United States. The ASEAN block is the fifth biggest economic region in the world. Since 2010, trade between China and ASEAN has doubled from $235.5 billion to more than $507.9 billion. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has projected influence while investing in the infrastructure and digital economy of ASEAN nations. 

    The United States considers ASEAN a crucial partner for trade and strategic cooperations in the Indo-Pacific. The Biden Administration has brought relations with ASEAN to the forefront, hosting the first U.S-ASEAN summit and prioritizing ASEAN states as the first destination for high profile members of the administration like Vice President Kamala Harris.

    In the past decades, most ASEAN nations sought to remain neutral between the United States and China, maintaining good relations with both great powers. However, this is not always possible and conflicts like the Russian invasion of Ukraine have forced ASEAN to publicly take a side as China has maintained support for Russia while the United States has led the efforts to support Ukraine and punish Russia.

    ASEAN’s relationship with Russia and its variety of responses to the Russian-Ukraine conflict

    Economic ties between Russia and the ASEAN pact are modest, and Russia is ASEAN’s 9th largest trade partner. The Russian-Ukraine conflict is predicted to have a low impact on ASEAN’s economic prospects. However, shortages from Russian sanctions and rising gas prices are likely to impact many ASEAN’s economies. Russia is a leading supply for arms sales in the region since Putin rose to power. In general, ties between Russia and Southeast Asian nations are weak and vary from nation to nation. However, since Russia and China are important strategic partners, negative sentiments towards Russia might affect relations with China. This places ASEAN nations in a difficult position in deciding whether to condemn Russia’s violation of international law or to appease an important partner. 

    At the United Nations session discussing the Russian attack, eight out of ten ASEAN nations voted to condemn Russia, while Vietnam and Laos abstained. Singapore has voiced the strongest opposition to the Russian invasion, and Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong remarked that if politics were based on “might is right”, such as the recent attack, the “world would be a dangerous place for small countries like Singapore”. This aligns with Singapore’s past reactions to international violations. In the 1980s, Singapore condemned China’s attack at Gac Ma in Vietnam as well as the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. 

    Meanwhile, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brunei condemned Russia’s attack but were less outspoken. These countries voted against Russia at the United Nations session. However, they did not name Russia as the “aggressor” and focused on advocating for respect for international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. 

    The countries with the most muted responses were Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. With their proximity to both China and Russia, it is more difficult for these countries to use strong language to condemn Russia’s actions. Here, both Malaysia and Thailand used neutral language such as “concerned” or “deeply concerned” to refer to the conflict, rather than specifying that Russia was at fault. Vietnam refused to use any language to condemn Russia, likely because Russia is its most important defense partner. In the past several decades, Vietnam has relied heavily on Russian imported weapons for national defense, especially in the South China Sea conflict.

  • U.S’s withdrawal in Afghanistan and its effects on ASEAN relations

    U.S’s withdrawal in Afghanistan and its effects on ASEAN relations

    U.S’s withdrawal in Afghanistan in 2021

    In 2021, after twenty years of military occupation, the United States and international forces departed Afghanistan. President Biden remarked: “It’s time to end America’s longest war”. After the withdrawal event, the local Afghan government disbanded, and the Taliban, an Islamic extremist group that formerly took control of the nation, retook power. 

    Many experts supported the decision, calling it “a wise strategic choice that took significant political courage”. Despite continuous investments in Afghanistan, many believed the United States could not change the course of political dynamics in this country. For that reason, this withdrawal would result in the most efficient outcome for the U.S and its allies. 

    Other experts regard the U.S’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan as a sign of weakened American strength in the international arena. Experts speculate that a withdrawal from Afghanistan might potentially signal other withdrawals in other arenas of conflict in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Under the context of the South China Sea conflict, ASEAN countries might face a decline in U.S support, thus they have to find new ways to circumvent Chinese aggression. As a result, such withdrawals can have serious impacts on aspects of United States-ASEAN relations.  

    U.S support for ASEAN nations in the South China Sea conflict

    The end of America’s longest war had major implications for allies around the world, including in relation to U.S. foreign policy in the South China Sea conflict. Since the early 2010s, China has made authoritative claims in the South China Sea to strengthen its authority in the region. China claimed possession of the estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under the sea. These claims and other militaristic actions antagonized relations with neighboring states including Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. According to the ASEAN countries and the United States, within the framework of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), many of China’s claims were invalid. 

    To ensure regional political security as well as to secure its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has supported its Southeast Asian partners to combat China’s aggression. U.S allies like Japan also sold equipment and combat ships to the Philippines and Vietnam. In a 2020 press release, Secretary of State Pompeo declared “the world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire. America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law”. The U.S’s proactive approach and continuous support within the span of this conflict signaled the United States’ strong advocacy for ASEAN allies in military conflicts with China.

    Future of U.S- ASEAN relations post-Afghanistan withdrawal

    In reality, most countries in Southeast Asia did not see this withdrawal as a major shift in U.S foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region. While it does signal a temporarily weakened America, it did not alter the U.S’s long term goals in the Indo-Pacific region. Some Southeast Asian policy experts believe the withdrawal might give Southeast Asia the full attention they believe it deserves given U.S-China’s competing interest in the region. 

    While the Afghanistan withdrawal seemed abrupt, most Southeast Asian nations did not see it as a surprise. In 2011, the Obama administration indicated the U.S. would withdraw from the Middle East to focus on the Asia-Pacific. This move was part of the United States’ foreign policy strategy to withdraw from “forever wars”. Overall, the withdrawal was the final result of a decade-long foreign policy. 

    The United States will likely continue and even strengthen its multi-lateral support for ASEAN, especially in disputes such as the South China Sea conflict. The United States will continue to be a strong advocate for other ASEAN claimants in the face of China’s assertive actions. Following Biden’s inauguration and Afghanistan’s withdrawal in 2021, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam, two key ASEAN partners. The trip’s goal was to cement U.S relationships with ASEAN nations after the complications of the Afghanistan withdrawal. According to NPR, one senior administration official in the Biden administration remarked: “Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific are really important and that’s why she’s going”. In addition, during her visit, Harris confirmed that the United States will continue to “bolster economic and security ties with its Southeast Asian countries”. 

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  • Joey Do, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

    Joey Do, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

    Joey (Ha) is an international student from Hanoi, Vietnam. She currently studies Political Science/ Public Policy at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor. Joey is passionate about education policies and international development in developing countries. In the future, Joey hopes to work either in research or in NGOs in Vietnam to improve access to education for high-school/college students of disadvantaged backgrounds. In her free time, she enjoys going to the museums and grabbing boba with her friends.

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