ACE

Author: Isabel Brandt

  • US Response to Iran’s Space Program 

    US Response to Iran’s Space Program 

    Amid US concern over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the Middle Eastern nation’s space programs have also come under scrutiny. Tehran’s interest in space dates back to 1957, when the country joined the United Nations Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). Iran’s recent technological achievements have raised concerns about the potential for expanded space development to accelerate the country’s acquisition of a nuclear arsenal.

    History of Iran’s Space Program 

    Since joining COPUOS, Iran has participated in several international discussions regarding Space, including the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Iran has maintained a state-run space program, the Iranian Space Agency (ISA), since 2003. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also runs a separate space program within the country as part of the IRGC Aerospace Force. According to the United States Institute of Peace, the IRGC is more heavily involved than the ISA in the development of solid-fuel rockets, which have the potential to be converted into missiles. 

    In 1998, Iran showcased its satellite capabilities with the Mesbah satellite program, established through a partnership with the Russian Federation. The Mesbah was intended for civilian image capture but was often speculated to have potential spy satellite features. While the Mesbah was never launched, the agreement marked an early sign of ongoing cooperation between Russia and Iran in space and military technology endeavors.

    US-Iran Relations 

    The relationship between the United States and Iran has been marked by a history of diplomatic struggles. During the Trump administration, tensions escalated when the IRGC was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The IRGC has been a state sponsor of Shia terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The Iranian government has also been responsible for numerous cyber attacks on foreign governments and private corporations. Eutelsat, a French satellite operator, reported in October that Iranian state actors had intentionally jammed two of its satellites. 

    Washington has made clear its intention to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities. This objective is reflected in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was agreed in 2015 by Iran, the EU, and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The JCPOA includes specific stipulations to prevent the development of Iranian nuclear weapons. In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, but both President Biden and Tehran have publicly supported resuming the deal. 

    Iran’s space programs have also raised concerns for US officials regarding the dual-use nature of space program technologies and the potential for their application in advancing the nation’s nuclear capabilities. There is a recognized correlation between the growth of space programs and weapons programs. Space technology holds the potential for application in missile development, particularly evident with IRGC solid-fuel rockets and space launch vehicle technologies. These connections played a role in the US-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2019. US intelligence indicates the expansion of Iran’s missile program through rocket launch tests, and the successful 2020 launch of the Noor-1 satellite by the IRGC suggests advancements in Tehran’s ability to develop and deploy missiles.  

    The US State Department has publicly expressed concern over Iranian rockets and their potential for use in delivering nuclear weapons. Members of Congress have supported Biden’s promise to reenter the JCPOA, but are critical of Biden’s lack of progress on the deal. During a visit to Israel, President Biden committed the US to use “all elements of its national power” to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. American officials are also worried about Iran’s significant alliances forged via its space programs, notably with Russia and China. Iran provided drones and missiles to Russia during its conflict with Ukraine, and some scholars are concerned about the potential expansion of Russian and Iranian influence into Latin America as well.

    Future DevelopmentsIn June 2023, analysts reported that Washington and Tehran are coming to an informal agreement to limit Iranian uranium enrichment to 60%. The level of enrichment needed for a nuclear weapon is 90%. In exchange for a cap on enrichment, Washington will work to unfreeze Iranian assets. Nuclear deal talks have grown stagnant in part due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but analysts speculate that an informal agreement may open the door for further diplomatic talks.

  • Introduction to the India-China Space Race

    Introduction to the India-China Space Race

    Introduction 

    India and China have heavily invested in their respective space programs since the 1960s, with both countries vying to become a leading space power. The space race between the United States and the Soviet Union had a major influence on China and India, leading the two Asian nations to make space development a priority. Both countries see space development as a means to achieve national development goals, maintain political power, increase national pride, and gain international respect. In recent years, the Asian space race has shifted away from an ideological superpower rivalry to focus on economic and national security benefits. 

    The Chinese Space Program 

    The Chinese space program is run by the China National Space Administration (CNSA), a civilian agency focused on defense-related technology. The CNSA does not oversee China’s astronauts. China’s manned space program is the China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSEO), part of China’s Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department (CMDED).

    The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sent astronauts into space for the first time in 2003 and has since conducted several other manned missions. The Chinese Manned Space Agency has been a source of great national pride for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with President Xi Jinping closely associating himself with the program’s success. China has also developed a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) that rivals the American Global Positioning System (GPS). In May 2023, the PRC announced several expansions to its current space program, including updates to its existing Tiangong space station and a plan to land astronauts on the moon by 2030.

    China has also rapidly expanded its arsenal of space technology for military purposes, including anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies. The PRC’s expanding ASAT capabilities have drawn concern from American national security experts. Many Chinese satellites are directly run by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which some American national security analysts fear could pose a security risk. 

    The Indian Space Program 

    India’s national space program is made up of the civilian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and the military Defense Space Agency (DSA). The DSA oversees India’s ASAT technology, which the Indian space program demonstrated with a successful test in 2019. The founding of the DSA in 2018 has shifted India’s space focus towards military applications. 

    India has also seen a rise in space technology companies and currently contains over 140 space tech start-ups. In June 2020, Indian PM Narendra Modi publicly pushed for private sector involvement in space technology. In 2022, Indian space start-ups garnered around $120 million in private investments, with investments predicted to increase in the coming years. 
    India’s space sector has also benefited from US tensions with Russia and China, which are major providers of satellite launches that geopolitical tensions have closed off to American customers. A 2021 report from the American intelligence community labeled China’s space program a major security concern. NASA also plans to retire the International Space Station in 2031; China’s Tiangong space station remaining in orbit would allow the PRC significant influence in space, a major concern for the US intelligence community. In June 2023, India emerged as a new American ally in space by signing the Artemis Accords, a non-binding agreement with the United States to set space exploration and use norms. India has also announced its plans for an ISRO space station and sent a joint mission with the US to the International Space Station in July 2023.