Author: Harper Follansbee

  • International Trade with China

    International Trade with China

    As discussed in the US-China Trade Deficit paper, the United States and China have a complicated economic relationship. While the two nations compete in many industries, they are also major consumers of each others’ goods and contribute on different points in a supply chain to produce many of the products in demand across the globe. At the same time, the trade deficit with China has caused growing concern in the United States, and caused many economists and policymakers to explore ways to better support US business in the face of competition with China.

    I. Import Tariffs

    An import tariff is a tax levied by one country on the goods and services imported from another country. Typically, governments impose these tariffs to protect domestic industries, gain additional revenue, and, in the case of the U.S.-China trade war, retaliate against unfair trading practices. Beginning in 2017, the United States imposed a litany of tariffs on Chinese imports, motivated by the expanding trade deficit. In theory, increasing the price of Chinese imports would drive up demand for domestically-produced goods and services, and, if the output increased to meet demands, would prompt domestic producers to hire additional workers. The import tariffs placed on Chinese goods and services would narrow the widening trade deficit and stimulate economic growth. However, many economists argue that the Trump administration’s import tariffs, when put into practice, achieved the complete opposite effect. 

    A recent report released by the U.S.-China Business Council (USBC) asserts that, contrary to the Trump administration’s goals, the tariffs actually “raised consumer prices on both imported products and domestic products.” The report also claims that by reducing consumer spending and stifling economic growth, these trade policies have cost the United States approximately 245,000 jobs. The Biden administration has since left these tariffs intact, a decision which Wall Street Journal columnist Henry Olsen deemed  “welcome”. Olsen argued that to keep China from “[mounting] a serious challenge to U.S. global dominance,” the Trump administration’s burdensome tariffs must remain a necessary evil.

    II. Import Quotas

    Import quotas, a close cousin of import tariffs, achieve a similar objective through a different process. Historically, both have been utilized to reduce the volume of imports and encourage demand for domestically-produced goods. However, import tariffs are taxes on imported goods, whereas import quotas are limits on their quantity or monetary value. By many accounts, quotas are more effective in restricting trade since they aren’t affected by fluctuations in demand or exchange rates, but this isn’t a universally useful strategy. As Monica Sanders from the Houston Chronicle asserts, trading partners typically respond with similar trade restrictions, resulting in “less exporting opportunity for all producers and higher prices for all consumers.” For example, during the early 1980s, the United States imposed import quotas on Japanese automobiles to generate growth within the domestic auto industry. As economist Edward Hudgins remarks, by limiting the number of imported automobiles, domestic auto companies raised prices “without fear of losing business to less expensive competitors.”

    III. Import Subsidies

    Subsidies are government funds paid to domestic producers. Resembling other protectionist policies, subsidies protect against inexpensive foreign imports by decreasing production costs and, consequently, increasing production growth. This leads to increased demand for domestically-produced goods. While they do regulate costs and prevent the long-term decline of domestic industries, subsidies also lead to consumers bearing the brunt of the financial burden and can be complicated for infant industries. In order to collect funds for subsidizing domestic industries, governments must impose higher taxes. Since they develop without competition, subsidizing infant industries may eventually lead to those industries requiring permanent subsidies to stay afloat. 
    Despite these potential risks, subsidies have remained a central component of U.S. trade policy over the last several decades. To encourage domestic energy production, the United States provides a number of subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. Totaling approximately $20 billion per year, these subsidies were initially intended to “lower the cost of fuel production and incentivize new domestic energy sources.” Due to comparatively cheaper renewable energy sources and negative environmental externalities, taxpayers have found it difficult to rationalize this government spending.

  • International Trade with China

    International Trade with China

    Today, China engages in international trade on an unprecedented scale, rapidly churning out inexpensive exports and housing enumerable manufacturing plants. 

    The ongoing trade war is one of the most readily identifiable topics surrounding U.S.-China relations. Mass media’s underlying political bias and proclivity to sensationalize topical issues have resulted in politically-skewed coverage. It’s likely many Americans still instinctively relate the trade war with the Trump administration’s incendiary rhetoric and rigid policies. In actuality, the topic, and its potential mitigation strategies, remain a distinctly non-partisan issue. A report from the Pew Research Center claims that, “Republicans and Democrats largely agree in their assessments of how China’s growing economy […] will affect the U.S.” To this point, within the last month, the Senate has passed a $250 billion bipartisan technology and manufacturing bill aimed at combating China’s economic growth. 

    A trade deficit occurs when the cost of a country’s imports exceeds the cost of its exports. In the late 1990s, China’s economy saw a dramatic growth in manufacturing exports, resulting in an American trade deficit of $34 billion on average. Following China’s admittance into the WTO in 2001, the trade deficit rose to $202 billion in 2005, and then $273 billion in 2020. In 2020, the United States imported $435 billion in goods and services from China and exported approximately $124 billion, leaving an outstanding deficit of approximately $310 billion in goods and services.

    Trade Deficit and the Exchange Rates

    A fixed or “pegged” exchange rate is when the value of a country’s currency is inseparably tied to the value of another widely-used commodity or currency. China manipulates its currency by deflating its worth by pegging it to a value less than it would trade for in a free market to gain advantages over trading partners. Many analysts proclaim that the nation’s currency is “significantly undervalued vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.” This causes exports to the United States to become inexpensive while United States imports to China are comparably more expensive. China’s “massive and sustained currency manipulation from 2000 to 2010…[widended] the trade deficit to historic levels.” 

    Impact on the US Economy

    There is a current debate among economists about whether the trade deficit with China has led to significant job loss in the United States. A recent EPI report stated that there is a correlation between the ever-growing trade deficit and a substantial loss in manufacturing employment. This report claims that “the growth of the U.S. trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2018 was responsible for the loss of 3.7 U.S. million jobs.” However, many economists have challenged this argument, attributing employment loss to “automation, productivity increases, and demand shifts from goods and services.” Further, economists have outrightly denounced the recent administration’s fixation on the widening trade deficit, claiming that, “the trade deficit is a terrible metric for judging economic policy.”

  • Harper Follansbee, University of Connecticut

    Harper Follansbee, University of Connecticut

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    Harper Follansbee (he/him) is originally from Windsor, CT, and is currently an undergraduate student at the University of Connecticut studying Political Science and Economics. Harper is incredibly passionate about social justice issues and believes that the path to improving this country’s flawed systems of government is through providing accessible and accurate information to its citizens. He is an active member of his university’s Law Society and Philosophy Club and plans to attend law school following the conclusion of his studies. Outside of academics, Harper enjoys practicing piano, reading, and walking his border collie, Silas.