Author: Gerardo Fontes

Introduction

On June 19, 2022, Colombia elected Gustavo Petro, the 62-year old, left-wing senator, former mayor of Bogotá, and former member of the M-19 guerilla, as president with 50.8% of the vote, defeating Rodolfo Hernandez, a 77-year-old real estate tycoon and former mayor of Bucaramanga. 

Petro’s win is historic, as he becomes the country’s first-ever leftist president. His running mate, Francia Márquez, is also breaking new ground by becoming the first Afro-Colombian and first woman to be elected vice president. Petro received almost 11.3 million votes, the most any presidential candidate has ever received. Many of those votes were the result of a surge in participation from poor and coastal communities.

Many of these voters were not energized to the polls by concerns over security and counter-narcotics, which have dominated past election cycles. Instead, the COVID-19 pandemic, mass protests, and a deteriorating economic climate, along with issues such as inequality, poverty, social problems, police brutality, corruption, and climate change have become the main drivers for a new wave of poor, young, and urban Colombians. Many viewed Petro as a figure to challenge the establishment and help “the nobodies”.

Petro’s Colombia

When Petro was inaugurated n August 2022, he took over a nation reeling from rising inflation, poverty, and unemployment. According to Americas Quarterly, 4 million Colombians went into poverty during the pandemic. A 2022 poll found 85% of Colombians think the situation in the country is worsening, with 34% believing the economy is the main problem. Only 26% of Colombians are satisfied with its democracy. 

Petro is taking over an unsatisfied and disillusioned Colombia. But it’s up to Petro to find allies for his Pacto Historico coalition—a coalition of left-leaning and center political parties and social groups—to begin to enact some of his campaign promises and goals from the economy to climate change.

Economic Reform

During his campaign, Petro emphasized the need for structural economic reform, stating in an interview with El Pais, “the establishment does not want change. It has become wealthy with an economic model that prioritizes the financial sector and is based on the extraction of oil and coal….a model like this increases social inequality, which is the mother of violence.” 

Petro’s goals include tax reform to finance new social programs and public projects to combat rising inequality and poverty in the country. 42.5% of the Columbia population—21 million people—live below the poverty line of 331,000 pesos (~$77) per month. Much of his plan is focused on increasing taxes and royalties on extractive industries and their products, such as mining endeavors and fossil fuels, which could raise around $5.2 billion in added revenue. Petro wants to implement a new progressive income tax where Colombians earning more than 10 million pesos per month—1% of the population—will pay progressively higher taxes. 

Petro also plans to focus on corporate tax evasion. According to Reuters, tax evasion costs the Colombian government $17.6 billion annually. These funds could be used to reduce the country’s deficit, which sits at 7.1% of its GDP.

Climate Change

Petro has been adamant that his priority as president is dealing with the environment and moving the country away from extractive industries, towards a productive economy. His vision of a “productive” economy would be becoming independent of oil and mining industries, which account for 50% of Colombia’s exports and 14% of government revenue, and replace them with renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and tourism. He also committed to end new oil exploration licenses which will be a complicated task because the government currently holds an 88% stake in EcoPetrol. However, Petro has made it a key goal of his presidency to make Colombia a global example in shifting away from extractive industries toward an environmentally oriented future.

Social Reform

Petro’s running mate, Francia Marques, represents a crucial advancement for many marginalized groups in Colombia. Petro’s has proposed creating a Ministry of Equality and ensuring 50% of all government positions are held by women. His campaign has put forward reforms to the public pension, healthcare programs, and public education in an effort to expand coverage and accessibility.

The issue of hunger has also intensified recently, with the Colombian Association of Food Banks reporting that around 16 million Colombians have access to 2 meals or less a day. To combat this issue, Petro plans to declare a state of emergency against hunger in the country.

Security & Counter-Narcotics

In regards to security, Petro has stated that he wants to properly implement the 2016 peace agreement with the guerilla group FARC, and begin peace negotiations with the National Liberation Army (ELN). He has also set his goals to promote reforms for the military and police including hold military officials accountable for human right violations, dismantle the police riot squad (ESMAD), professionalize the military, and reform its merit-based promotion system.

US-Colombia Relations Under Petro

Colombia has been the US’s strongest Latin American partner for over two decades, with the US providing over $13 billion in aid. However, with the election of Gustavo Petro, the US finds itself with a new Colombian government different from the conversative governments of the past. While the Biden administration seems to be taking an open and cautious approach with Colombia, Petro seeks a ‘more equitable’ relationship” with Washington. At this time, it is not yet clear what that equitable relationship will entail.

A Time of Change

In 2021 and at the start of 2022, Latin American politics were dominated by numerous, significant elections. Newly elected leaders marked the beginning of a new wave of youth attempting to change the region’s status quo. Many of these leaders will come into power facing countless issues that have been plaguing Latin America for years: the rising prices of commodities, economic recovery from COVID-19, corruption, democratic backsliding, debates over extractivism, and growing tensions between the U.S. and China in the region.

At the same time, the U.S. finds itself at a crossroads in its relationship with the region. While President Biden has made it a priority to work with Latin American governments to tackle issues such as migration crises and economic recovery, the administration will still have to work on amending its partnerships with the region following years of deteriorating relations. A fresh wave of leadership across the region may present an opportunity for the U.S. to realign its foreign policy with Latin America.

Focusing on the elections in Ecuador, Chile, and Honduras, what do these new governments mean for the future of U.S. foreign policy in Latin America?

Ecuador

On May 24th, 2021, Ecuador’s newly elected president, Guillermo Lasso took office. Lasso is a conservative, right-leaning, former banker who had a surprising victory over Andrés Arauz. Arauz was the hand-selected successor of former President Rafael Correa, the long-time serving leftist president who has since been convicted of corruption. Lasso’s victory represents a shift away from the authoritarian leftist politics of Correa, which has ignited both hopes for change and uncertainty about the future of the country.

Since taking office, Lasso has attempted to enact his pro-business and pro-investment policies but has been faced with limited support in Congress. Further issues have plagued his first six months in power, including the growing security crisis and intensifying drug trade, as well as the massive influx of Venezuelan migrants into the country. Moreover, the need for economic stability in the wake of rising inflation has consumed much of Lasso’s time in office. This has led Lasso to prioritize juridical reforms across the Ecuadorian government to create a safe environment for foreign investments and attempt to renegotiate trade and debt agreements with the U.S., China, and IMF to help revitalize the economy.

Lasso has proven that he can be a strong ally for the U.S. in South America. Both his participation in the Summit of the Americas and the recent visit by First Lady Jill Biden exhibit the continued strength of the U.S.-Ecuadorian relationship. Moreover, despite the growing presence of China in Ecuador’s economy, the U.S remains the country’s number one trading partner. With this strong ally in South America, the U.S. has the option to work with Lasso and the Ecuadorian government to tackle many of the important issues that President Biden has been focusing on in Latin America, including dealing with migration, drug trafficking, corruption, and climate change. Lasso and Ecuador have the potential to be key allies as the U.S. attempts to reestablish itself as a primary player in Latin America.

Chile

The election of Gabriel Boric for president in December of 2021 marked a monumental shift in Chilean politics. Boric represents the epitome of the new wave of leadership sweeping across Latin America, as a young, leftist leader with a focus on the issues of climate change, social reform, and inequality. Boric came into power riding a massive wave of social unrest beginning in 2019. This wave of support is what pushed Boric to victory over José Antonio Kast, a right-wing lawyer, whom many Chileans viewed as a dangerous regression towards the conservative right-wing dictatorship of Pinochet.

Since Boric’s inauguration in March of 2022, he has focused on tackling many of the same issues that plague governments across the region, including migration and economic instability. However, following the 2019 protests in the country, Chile has been attempting to rewrite its constitution, which has remained unchanged since Chile transitioned to democracy in 1990. The Constitutional Referendum has consumed much of Chilean politics in Boric’s first months in charge and has hindered many of his efforts to pass taxes on mining companies and social justice reform. Further issues such as rising inflation and the soaring cost of commodities have left Chile, a country that imports much of its food and crude oil, in a difficult economic situation that Boric will have to face in the coming months.

While domestic issues remain central during the early days of Boric’s presidency, his election victory provides a new opportunity for U.S. foreign policy. Most importantly, Boric represents the new “millennial” left wave that is passing through Latin America: a “new left” with an ideological shift away from the authoritarian leftist governments of the early 2000s who vilified the United States, to one that seeks to work and collaborate with the U.S. to preserve democracy and tackle other international affairs. Boric has already shown his desire to work with the U.S. by attending the recent Summit of the Americas. Fostering a positive U.S.-Chile relationship can be an example for other newly elected leaders across the region.

Moreover, much of the Biden administration’s goals and priorities align well with Boric’s agenda, especially the focus on strengthening democracy, social reforms, inequality, and climate change. The issue of climate change could be a key point of collaboration between both countries as Boric seeks to make the country’s mining companies more community-oriented and environmentally friendly, which are efforts that can be aided by U.S. support. 

Chile can also be an opportunity for the U.S. to reinvigorate itself as an important economic partner in the region. Chile has the second-largest lithium deposits in the world and is the number one exporter of copper, so the country has a vital role in the global economy, as the demand for batteries and electric cars continues to grow. The natural resources have attracted Chinese manufacturers, culminating in China being Chile’s number one trading partner. The U.S. could pursue new economic strategies such as increasing investments, building on current trade deals, and strengthening the region’s supply chain, to lessen the trade gap with China in Latin America. 

Honduras

The election of Xiomara Castro in November of 2021 was a turning point for Honduran politics; it marked the end of a 12-year single-party rule, and Castro became the country’s first female president. A 62-year-old center-leftist, Castro is the wife of former President Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in a 2009 military-backed coup, which both the U.S. and OAS condemned. 

Castro has taken over the country at one of its lowest points. Her predecessor, former President Juan Orlando Hernádez was indicted by the U.S. for drug trafficking. Moreover, the country has begun to recover from the devastating shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as two Category 4 hurricanes in 2020, which resulted in a 9% decline in GDP. While the past two years have been a slow growth towards recovery, Honduras remains one of the poorest countries in Central America. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, 73% of the population lives below the national poverty line, with almost 54% living in extreme poverty. With a reeling economy and intensifying violence, thousands of families have made the treacherous journey northwards to the U.S. causing a mass migration crisis.

However, Castro’s victory could prove to be a reset in U.S.-Honduran relations. During her campaign, Castro ran on a platform heavily aligned with the Biden administration’s goals for Central America. This led Vice President Kamala Harris to attend Castro’s inauguration, showing positive signs for the relationship. Efforts by the Biden administration such as the “Root Causes of Migration” policy seek to tackle the issues such as economic insecurity, corruption, human rights violations, and violence that push families to migrate northwards. However, such policies will require support from government officials in Central America to be effective. As Castro shows signs of being a strong ally in the region, Honduras may become essential for the U.S. plan to deal with the current migration crisis.

U.S. support could also be crucial in aiding Honduras with its economic recovery. Over 30% of the country’s budget is consumed by debt to international financial institutions, many of whom the U.S. is a primary financier. By renegotiating this debt, much of the country’s budget could be redistributed towards health, education, and national development. Furthermore, dealing with Honduras’ rampant corruption problem is also a major target for Castro, who has already pledged to create an anti-corruption commission. Congruently, President Biden has made solving corruption an important part of his “Root Causes of Migration” plan. He has also promised $4 billion in aid which Honduras will only have access to once government corruption is dealt with. 

The Future Remains Uncertain

For Ecuador, Chile, and Honduras change brings hope and uncertainty. While new leadership could prove to be a turning point for many of these countries, many developments still remain to be seen. For the U.S., this could be the opportunity to push for a new foreign policy to re-establish itself in Latin America. However, these leaders need time and patience, which might be the hardest thing to find.