Category: Election Policy

President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office Monday, January 20th for his non-consecutive second term. Along the campaign trail, Trump has made several promises that he plans to execute on his first day back in office. Such promises include initiating mass deportations, ending the war in Ukraine, combating inflation, and pardoning those who were charged for their participation in the January 6th insurrection.

Mass Deportation

While campaigning, President-elect Trump promised to carry out the country’s largest mass deportation program, stating that America must “make the border strong and powerful.” Trump’s appointed “border czar” Tom Homan explained that the Trump administration would implement a “Remain in Mexico” policy on Trump’s first day in office. This policy would force asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while waiting for their asylum status to be approved. Additionally, Homan expressed plans to deport all illegal immigrants even if their children are United States citizens, arguing, “having a U.S. citizen child doesn’t make you immune from our laws.” It is expected that these policies will be implemented through executive orders.

Trump’s promised mass deportation program is estimated to cost around $86 billion. Without the guaranteed support of congressional funding, the budgets of executive agencies will need to be reworked in order to allocate enough funding to execute the policy. Given the impending increase in detained immigrants under his policy, the Trump administration is also preparing to work with county jails and private prisons to provide additional space for undocumented immigrants. In his Time Person of the Year interview, the president-elect also noted that he is prepared to call in the National Guard and local sheriffs to execute his deportation policies.

Ukraine Russia War

Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to take steps to end the war between Russia and Ukraine during his first days as president. In an interview with Fox news, Trump’s press secretary stated that on day one, Trump would bring “Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table to end this war.” While Trump has not elaborated on the specifics of his plan to engage both nations in negotiations, his campaign’s communications director has noted that the war is a “top priority” of Trump’s second term and that “Trump believes European nations should be paying more of the cost of the conflict.” Despite Trump’s promises, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations has argued that the conflict cannot be solved in “one day.”

Economy and Inflation

During his campaign for president, Trump promised to increase tariffs on foreign imports with the aim of decreasing costs for American consumers. In late November, Trump announced that he would implement a 25% tariff on all products coming into the United States from Mexico and China on his first day in office. Trump plans to keep the tariffs in place until illegal immigrants stop entering the United States. Moreover, Trump promised that he would leverage an “additional 10% tariff” against China until it stops the flow of drugs, particularly Fentanyl, from entering the U.S.

China, Canada, and Mexico have all denied their alleged involvement in the flow of drugs across U.S. borders, reiterating their commitment to border security in statements to the press. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that “neither threats nor tariffs will solve the issue of migration or drug consumption,” arguing that Trump’s proposed day-one tariffs do not address the root issues underlying migration and the drug trade. 

Despite promising to “bring [grocery] prices way down” during an interview with NBC in early December, Trump has also faced pushback from economists who warn that his proposed tariffs will instead increase the cost of goods for the American consumer. Chief market strategist at Corpay Cross-Border Solutions, Karl Schamotta, argues that the tariffs will “add approximately $272 billion a year to tax burdens, raise goods prices, [and] lift interest rates.” Trump recently backpedaled on his promise to lower grocery prices in his Time Person of the Year interview, stating that it would be “very hard” to bring down grocery prices due to broken supply chains. In the interview, Trump did not clarify his plans to fix the supply chain issue, but stressed that his day-one tariffs would strengthen the economy.

January 6th Pardons

On the campaign trail, Trump announced a plan to pardon all individuals charged for their actions related to the capitol insurrection on January 6th, 2021. In mid-December, Trump stated that he plans to issue pardons on a “case-by-case” basis, promising to look over each case within the “first hour that [he] gets into that office” to determine if the insurrectionists “actually caused death and destruction”. In the same interview, Trump claimed that most of the insurrectionists “should not be in jail” and have “suffered greatly.” At least 1,500 people have been charged or plead guilty to the attack on the capitol, and at least 645 people have been sentenced to jail time. 

As January 20th approaches, critics and supporters alike wait intently to see whether the President-elect will follow through on his day-one policy promises.

What is the Presidential Cabinet?

The President’s Cabinet serves as an advisory board for the President. It is made up of the heads of the 15 executive departments. These members are appointed by the President and must be approved by the Senate by a majority vote to confirm the nomination. 

Trump is currently in the process of announcing his cabinet nominations. Some of the major positions he has announced so far include Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, and Attorney General.

Secretary of State

The Secretary of State is the head of the Department of State, whose role is to develop and implement foreign policy. The Secretary serves the President as their top foreign policy advisor and executes the President’s foreign policy. This department represents the United States in communications with foreign nations, develops foreign assistance and military training programs, works to combat international crime, and negotiates and interprets treaties and agreements.

Marco Rubio was announced as Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State. In response to his nomination, Rubio promised to “deliver peace through strength” and to place the “interest of Americans and America above all else.” Rubio currently serves as a Senator from Florida and previously served as a member of Florida’s House of Representatives. He currently serves on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Rubio has taken hard-line stances against China, stating in a Washington Post op-ed that China is the “largest, most advanced adversary America has ever faced.” He has promoted tariffs, technology restriction requirements, and trade barriers against China. On Gaza, Rubio has consistently supported “Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas” and denied support for a ceasefire. On immigration, Rubio supports strong border protections and the deportation of illegal immigrants, claiming that America is being “invaded.”

Secretary of Defense 

The Secretary of Defense is the head of the Department of Defense, whose role within the Executive Branch is to bolster national security. The Department of Defense aims to protect national interest through war-fighting, humanitarian aid, and disaster relief services. The Army, Air Force, Navy, and the Pentagon all fall under the Department’s purview. The Defense Secretary is the President’s top advisor, and oversees the nation’s armed forces as. Their authority is second only to the Commander in Chief (President).

Trump named political commentator and Fox News Anchor Pete Hegseth as his nominee for Secretary of Defense. Hegseth currently hosts the show Fox and Friends Weekend and has appeared on other Fox News daytime and primetime shows. He previously served in the Army as an Infantry Officer in the National Guard. Additionally, Hegseth formerly served as CEO of the veterans advocacy group Concerned Veterans for America. When speaking on the podcast The Shawn Ryan Show, Hegseth stated his belief that “[America] should not have women in combat roles” as he believes men are “more capable.” Additionally, he stated that he wanted to fire army generals who support “any of the DEI [diversity, equity, and inclusion]” and he supports a “frontal assault” on DEI policies. He has also stated that the U.S. military would be more effective if it were to create a “real threat of violence.”

Secretary of Homeland Security 

As the head of the Department of Homeland Security, the Secretary of Homeland Security advises the President on how to protect the American people from foreign and domestic threats. This department is responsible for preventing terrorist attacks, protecting infrastructure, facilitating trade and travel, responding to natural disasters, and regulating the migration of people in and out of the country. Agencies under the department include U.S Customs and Border Protection, Citizenship and Immigration Services, FEMA, and Cybersecurity. 

Kristi Noem was recently named the nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security. She currently serves as the Governor of South Dakota and previously served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives and the South Dakota House of Representatives. In his statement announcing Noem’s nomination, Trump stated that Noem “has been very strong on border security” and will protect America “from our adversaries.” In response to her nomination, Noem issued a statement promising to “secure our homeland” and falsely condemned illegal immigration alone for “[driving] up crime in the country” and increasing “drugs and human trafficking.”

Director of National Intelligence 

The role of the Director of National Intelligence is to advise the President, the National Security Council, and the Homeland Security Council on national security matters. Additionally, the Director oversees the Intelligence Community’s 18 agencies including the CIA and NSA.

Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence, previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives and ran for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020 before leaving the party in 2022 to become independent and joining the Republican Party in 2024. Gabbard currently serves in the U.S. Army Reserve as Lieutenant Colonel. 

Attorney General 

The Attorney General serves as the head of the Department of Justice and acts as the chief law enforcement officer for the federal government. The Attorney General represents the U.S. in all legal matters.

President-Elect Trump recently nominated Pam Bondi for Attorney General, praising her for work to “stop the trafficking of deadly drugs” and “reduce the tragedy of Fentanyl Overdose Deaths.” Bondi previously served as Florida’s first woman attorney general. She also worked as a defense lawyer for Trump in 2020 during his first impeachment trial. She currently serves as the Chair of the Center for Litigation for America First Policy Institute, a conservative nonprofit think tank. In November, she filed an amicus curiae brief to appeal the special counsel’s classified documents case against Trump, arguing that the special counsel was unlawfully appointed. 
Before nominating Bondi, Trump had first nominated Florida Representative Matt Gaetz. Upon the news of his initial nomination, Gaetz announced his resignation from the House effective immediately. Since 2021, Gaetz has been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee on allegations that he “engaged in sexual misconduct and/or illicit drug use,” used campaign funds for personal use, and accepted bribes. Gaetz has denied all allegations. This past Wednesday, the bi-partisan ethics committee met to discuss whether or not the investigation report should be released to the public. The ethics committee could not come to an agreement about releasing the report, which may force the House to vote on its release. In light of the controversy, Gaetz withdrew from the Attorney General nomination on November 21st. He has since clarified that he does not plan on re-joining Congress.

Tuesday, November 5th marks Election Day in the United States. As millions of voters cast their ballots, news organizations carefully analyze incoming voting data to determine the winner in several races, including the presidency. But even though news organizations such as the Associated Press can “call” a presidential election, their projections do not constitute official election results. Election results are instead certified by the government. However, due to the fragmented and often slow-moving design of the Electoral College, the official Electoral College vote does not usually occur until December. In order to fill the time gap between Election Day and the Electoral College vote, news organizations analyze vote count data from each state to determine state-level results, predict state Electoral votes, and ultimately declare one candidate the next President.

The Long Road to Official Election Results

Presidential election results in the U.S. are not determined by the popular vote, but instead by the Electoral College vote. As specified in the Constitution, each state receives a number of Electoral College representatives proportional to the state’s congressional delegation size. For example, Vermont has three electors since the state has two Senators and one Representative in Congress. As populations shift, census-based redistricting can cause states to gain or lose electors. However, Electoral College votes are not proportional to population size; for example, one Electoral College vote in Wyoming accounts for 195,000 people, while one Electoral College vote in Texas accounts for 700,000 people. 

Before the November election date, each presidential party chooses its slate of electors for each state. There are few criteria to be an elector other than not having engaged in insurrection and not holding national Congressional office. Currently, all but two states operate under a “winner takes all” system in which all of that state’s electors are sworn to cast their Electoral College vote for the presidential candidate who won the majority of votes in their state. Faithless electors, or electors who cast their Electoral College vote for someone other than the candidate they swore to vote for, complicate the predictability of this system and are not currently regulated consistently across states. 

After November votes are tallied and the winner in each state is made evident, electors meet in their respective states to cast their votes in mid-December. The results of the Electoral College vote are then sent to the newly-elected national Congress which meets to declare official election results on January 6th. 

How News Organizations Calculate Timely Results

In order to calculate the results of the presidential election on or soon after Election Day, the media tabulates votes as they are cast. Media organizations will typically use two methods to determine votes: national polls or data collected from local officials such as county clerks. Since 2003, news networks have worked together to create an organization called the National Election Pool to create exit polls that more accurately capture voting choices. After the 2016 presidential election results differed widely from polling projections, the Associated Press left this consortium of news networks in favor of conducting its own online polling. The Associated Press determined that because voting on Election Day is no longer more common than voting early or by mail, Election Day exit polls are disproportionate to the larger electorate. Thus, the Associated Press created its own polling methodology, AP VoteCast, to attempt to provide polling methods that better accounted for the votes casted prior to Election Day. 

Through a combination of polling and collecting voting results, news organizations are tasked with determining the President-elect in real time. News organizations analyze incoming votes to determine if the trailing candidate can achieve the number of votes needed to catch up to the current polling leader based on the number of votes a county or state has historically received in previous elections, the demographics of the area, and past voting history. Based on this analysis, if a news organization determines that there is no chance the trailing candidate will achieve the number of votes necessary to overtake their opponent, the news organization will call the race. 
In states where the race is close, news organizations may not call a clear winner until days after Election Day. This is because states have different voting laws. Some states do not start counting votes until Election Day, causing a delay in results compared to other states. Additionally, in some states, mail-in ballots received within a certain period after Election Day are counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. These discrepancies can cause delays in news media tabulations, as organizations wait for official state vote tallies. For example, the 2020 presidential election was called by most media outlets four days after Election Day due to the steep increase of mail-in ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated delays in vote counting.

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue on the campaign trail, both presidential candidates have attempted to reach new audiences of potential voters. In recent months, both candidates have tapped into the expanding podcast industry, appearing on popular shows to speak on political issues and encourage the expanding base of podcast listeners to vote. 

Recap: Harris’ Interview with Call Her Daddy

On October 6th, Alex Cooper, podcaster and co-creator of the Call Her Daddy podcast, released her interview with Vice President Harris. The Call Her Daddy podcast is Spotify’s second-largest podcast and attracts a predominantly female audience. Cooper, who interviewed Harris, stated that she had also reached out to Donald Trump for an interview. 

To begin the Call Her Daddy interview, Cooper first inquired why the Vice President chose to sit down for an interview with her in the first place. Harris noted that Cooper had built up an impressive community where her listeners felt seen and heard as women. Harris then spoke about her time serving as a prosecutor and how that career choice stemmed from her desire to help those who were left vulnerable by abuse. She emphasized that her work has been about restoring survivors’ voices and honoring their right to justice. 

The conversation then shifted to reproductive freedoms and voting. Harris emphasized that both are fundamental rights for women, asserting, “No one should take your power from you.” When questioned about how to make this country safer for women, Harris emphasized economic autonomy, stating her desire to “uplift the ability of women to have economic health and wellbeing.” Harris expressed that women in abusive relationships often cannot leave because they lack access to the financial means to support themselves. 

On the topic of women’s health and freedom, Copper asked for Harris’s thoughts on a statement Trump had directed at the women attending his rally in Pennsylvania. Trump had stated, “You will be protected and I will be your protector.” This led Harris to argue that Trump’s statement was hypocritical, given that he previously ran on and delivered a promise to elect Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade and remove the national right to abortion. Cooper then spoke on her perspective on post-Roe America, sharing an experience where she spoke to a woman who had experienced extreme harassment for trying to seek an abortion. Harris and Cooper both condoned the government’s authority over women’s bodies, calling the overturning of Roe “outrageous.” Harris also pointed out that many clinics that provide abortion, which have since been shut down, also provided access to other health services like pap smears and breast cancer screenings. She argued that abortion bans have therefore limited access to healthcare in general. 

Harris then spoke on the practical applications of these abortion bans, arguing that abortion exceptions “if the life of the mother is at risk” do not actually protect women because they imply that the mother is “almost dead before you decide to give her care”. Harris cited the case of Amber Thurman, who died after doctors were prohibited from performing a life-saving procedure due to state abortion bans.

Harris also shared her thoughts on Republican Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance’s comments about “childless cat ladies,” calling them  “mean spirited” and saying that the “strength of a leader is about who you lift up.”

Harris wrapped up by addressing her plans to help young Americans. She shared that she wants to create tax incentives to build 3 million more housing units and provide $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time home buyers. She also wants to give young parents a “$6,000 tax cut for the first year of their child’s life.” Harris then reiterated her commitment to relieving student loan debt and preventing medical debt from impacting credit scores. Finally, when asked why people should trust her, Kamala Harris stated that she “believes in the promise of America” and that leadership is about “investing in the people” to lift up the whole.

Recap: Trump’s Interview with This Past Weekend

On August 20th, comedian and podcaster Theo Von interviewed former president Trump on his podcast This Past Weekend. The comedian interviewed Trump at the former President’s country club in New Jersey and discussed a variety of topics such as healthcare and border security. Notable past guests on This Past Weekend include Mark Cuban, Bernie Sanders, and Tucker Carlson.

Theo Von began the interview by inquiring about Donald Trump’s sons, seeing as Barron Trump is a fan of the podcast. Trump spoke about all of his sons’ various ventures before the conversation shifted to Trump’s abstinence from substance use. Trump stated that he does not drink or do drugs because of his brother, Frank Trump Jr., who struggled with an addiction that eventually led to his death. Von and Trump bonded over their shared avoidance of substances, as Von had previously struggled with substance use himself but has been sober for two years. 

The conversation then pivoted to a discussion of the opioid crisis. Trump shared his thoughts on allowing pharmaceutical companies to advertise on television and his plans to curtail opioid-related deaths. Trump stated that during his time in office, he formed committees to attempt to combat the opioid crisis. Trump also claimed that “the establishment” is trying to “sink” him, which he claimed is part of the reason why so many of his supporters continue to back him. Trump claimed that he had prepared an executive order that would have “forced hospitals and insurers to publish all their prices”, and blamed Biden and Harris for not continuing the order during their administration. Trump also accused democratic Senator and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of keeping medical prices high and taking financial contributions from healthcare lobbyists.

Von then asked Trump if he ever considered having Robert F. Kennedy as a potential running mate, an idea which Trump shut down immediately. Trump shared that though he liked the guy, he firmly believes that the American electoral system is a two-party system, and Kennedy is a third-party candidate. Von and Trump also discussed Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate and Kamala Harris’ subsequent rise to Presidential nominee. Trump speculated that the Democratic leaders forced Biden out of the race, calling the debate “a good debate for me and a bad debate for him.” He then went on to label Harris the “worst Vice President in history.” 

Discussing border security, Trump brought back the idea of his border wall, arguing that the wall “works” and provides a rest stop for border security agents. He then claimed that Harris wanted open borders and that other countries’ crime rates were lower because they are “sending all their criminals here.” In closing, Trump stated that he would seal the border and that the border was safest under his previous administration.