Category: Europe

  • Ukraine and the Changing Transatlantic Security Order

    Ukraine and the Changing Transatlantic Security Order

    The Shadow of War Returns to Europe

    The post-Cold War security environment in Europe was characterized by the diminishing influence of Russia, which saw its former Warsaw Pact allies gradually integrated into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Russia under President Vladimir Putin considered this expansion detrimental to its security interests. Russia attempted to stop Georgia and the Baltic Republics from establishing closer security ties with NATO, even going to war with Georgia briefly in 2008. Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution (2014) overthrew a pro-Russia regime and the country aspired to democratize and draw closer to the European Union. In response, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea in 2014 and aided separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region—which borders Russia—in seceding. 

    The United States and its allies considered this a threat to democracy and pluralism in Europe. The allies implemented sanctions against Russia in 2014 with the intention of forcing Russia to negotiate a withdrawal. However, Russia’s economic and military capabilities were not significantly affected by the sanctions. Critical sectors like energy were not sanctioned because European countries like Germany depended on Russian oil and natural gas. Putin demanded a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO or the EU and, when an agreement was not reached, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The full-scale Russian invasion threatens to reverse post-Cold War borders in Europe, destabilize the trans-Atlantic security order, and affect countries far removed from the theater of war.

    Western Allies Respond

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine was met with strong reactions from the United States and its allies. In his statement on February 26, President Joe Biden declared, “Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences.” The United States coordinated with the G7, the world’s leading industrial nations, to launch a new round of sanctions on Russia to curtail its ability to finance the war, and held an emergency NATO summit to map out the next steps.

    The United States has also been urging allies to increase their defense spending, a long-standing US policy objective. In response to the invasion, Germany announced a shift in its defense policy, including re-armament. During his February 27, 2022 speech to parliament, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged an additional €100 billion for the armed forces and committed Germany to spending 2% of its GDP on defense, in line with NATO expectations. Other European countries have taken similar steps to strengthen their military capabilities. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced that Poland will allocate 3% of its GDP to defense from 2023. The Netherlands has committed an additional €5 billion to defense over the next few years. This is a 40% increase from its 2022 defense budget and meets NATO’s 2% GDP target in 2024 and 2025.

    The invasion has reignited talks of an EU common defense policy. On February 28, 2022 the Council of Europe, the highest decision-making body for EU member states, approved a historic €500 million package for Ukraine. This includes €450 million in military supplies and an additional €50 million for fuel and protective equipment. This is the first time the EU has pledged lethal equipment to a non-EU member through the European Peace Facility (EPF). The High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HRVP) Josep Borrell explained that the EU “wants peace in Europe, but we have to be prepared to defend this peace.” 

    EU heads of state and government pledged on March 10, 2022 to take more defense responsibility which several US Presidents had urged. EU leaders also endorsed the Strategic Compass soon after, a plan of action to increase the EU’s ability to respond to crises with rapid deployment capacity, increased defense investment, and better preparedness for hybrid threats. The European Council subsequently met in May and June to reiterate its commitment to increase military and financial support for Ukraine and to advance Ukraine’s EU membership request. EU members also approved the latest round of EU sanctions on Russia which included crude oil and refined petroleum products as well as Russian-origin gold.

    Despite the EU’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, fulfilling some promises may be challenging. For example, the EU pledged to provide fighter jets, but the Ukrainian air force is trained to fly Russian-made  MiG-29s and Su-24s. Only Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia have that type of jet, and those states have been hesitant to send their aircraft to Ukraine due to supply shortages and fear of escalation However, when Poland finally proposed to do so, provided the US accelerates its delivery of F-16s to Warsaw, the United States decided against this move by concluding that the proposal was not tenable. On March 8, in a statement by the Pentagon, Press Secretary John F. Kirby expressed concerns over dispatching American aircrafts into contested airspaces.

    Deepening Transatlantic Ties

    The United States provided leadership to create a coordinated response to the invasion. This included imposing stricter and broader sanctions on Russia than in 2014, providing military aid to Ukraine, and increasing defense coordination. US Foreign Secretary Anthoney Blinken stated, “The strategy that we’ve put in place, massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia, solidarity with more than 30 countries engaged in these efforts, is having real results.”

    The sanctions imposed on Russia are changing Europe’s economic dependencies, particularly in the energy sector. To restructure these dependencies, Europe is establishing new partners and alternative technologies. The United States is trying to fill in the gap and has seen demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise by over 50% in Europe compared to the same period the year before. A protracted war in Ukraine could bolster the significance of the new US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) formed in June 2021 and eventually lead to closer transatlantic cooperation on energy, trade, technology and innovation. This emerging collaborative spirit helps in overcoming the tensions generated by Eurosceptic security and trade positions held by the Trump administration. This shift makes it easier to take coordinated steps for addressing the long-term economic impact of the war.

    Reviving NATO

    Finland and Sweden are traditionally non-aligned countries, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the two Nordic nations to reassess their security interests and apply for NATO membership on May 18, 2022. Although experts believe an attack on Finland and Sweden is unlikely while Russia is focused on Ukraine, Finland and Sweden remain vulnerable until they are included in NATO’s mutual defense guarantees. Ahead of their formal application, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Finland and Sweden to sign security guarantees. President Biden expressed support for the two countries’ NATO bids and welcomed Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson at the White House.

    Swedish and Finnish NATO membership has a number of advantages. Sweden has naval bases on the Baltic Sea and a navy with experience operating in confined waters, which adds key capabilities in the Baltic region. Gotland is a strategically important Swedish island which can act as a staging ground for naval operations in the region. Finland shares a long border with the Kola peninsula, which is Russia’s Arctic navy and nuclear submarine base. This puts NATO in a position to isolate the peninsula from mainland Russia.

    NATO has functioned as an instrument for United States security interests and conflict leadership, but lost credibility by mishandling conflicts in Libya (2011) and Afghanistan (2015-2021) under US leadership. NATO’s reemergence provides the US a chance to strengthen its relationship with its longest allies and exert US influence on the European continent.

    Ending Aggression Through a United Front

    Some speculate that Trans-Atlantic solidarity will not hold if the war turns into a protracted, localized conflict, with Russia forcibly occupying parts of Eastern Ukraine. There are concerns that the economic toll of the conflict on sanctioning nations, declining public interest, and other international priorities will lead to disunity in the alliance. However, a destabilized Ukraine will remain a source of insecurity for the entire continent.

  • Introduction to U.S.─France Relations

    Introduction to U.S.─France Relations

    Introduction

    France is a founding member of NATO, the European Union, and holds permanent membership and veto power on the UN Security Council. France has influence in all three of these organizations, as well as an extensive military, with the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. It maintains a strong diplomatic presence across the globe and was ranked first in soft power—a country’s ability to persuade others without force or coercion, often through collaboration and the shaping of positive attitudes towards said country—in 2017 and 2019. For these reasons, the United States’ relationship with France is one of the country’s most important diplomatic relationships, as French actions impact American interests.

    Quick Facts

    History of U.S.─France Relations

    France is the United States’ oldest ally. The relationship between the United States and France began during the Revolutionary War, when France allied with the American colonists against Great Britain in 1778 through both a military and economic Treaty of Alliance. This alliance with the United States was essential to the American victory.

    During World War 1, the United States entered the war on the side of the Allies and sent millions of American troops to France to fight on the Western Front, where U.S. troops were essential in turning the tide of the war against Germany. The U.S. and France were also allied in World War 2, and the U.S. was essential in liberating France from German occupation.

    In 1949 France and the United States entered a military alliance once again through the founding of NATO. France supported the United States during the Cold War but had its own interests to look after as well. Due to disagreements over the French nuclear program, France withdrew from NATO’s military command structure in 1966. Prior to the United States joining the Vietnam War in 1964, the U.S. supported French opposition to the Viet Minh through military assistance. When France lost control of Vietnam the United States became the dominant western power in the region, to the dissatisfaction of France.

    The two countries cooperated against Iraq during the Persian Gulf War but France later opposed the Invasion of Iraq in 2003. Relations once again became friendlier in 2007 with the election of Nicolas Sarkozy to the French Presidency. Sarkozy was pro-American, and he returned France to full NATO membership. In the years following, the two countries cooperated in several counter-terrorism operations and were strong allies. 

    The election of President Donald Trump weakened French opinion of the United States. In particular, President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords (2017) and the Iran Nuclear Deal (2018) were heavily opposed by France. In 2020 the United States established tariffs on French imports over France’s digital services tax, which impacted American tech companies. In 2021 France recalled their ambassador to the United States for the first time ever over the AUKUS crisis. AUKUS is a security pact between the U.S., Australia and the U.K. and France viewed its exclusion as a betrayal. This pact also led to Australia canceling a major, lucrative submarine deal with France without warning. Despite conflicts between the U.S. and France, relations have recently strengthened due to collaboration against Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

    Strategic Interests

    • Security: France is an invaluable ally to the United States in global security efforts. It is a principal member of NATO, and took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union in January, 2022. Cooperation with France is necessary to create a unified front against global threats, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France has dedicated $2 billion in financial aid to Ukraine and, through the European Union, has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia. The United States relies on French support and action to jointly combat security challenges across the globe.
    • Trade: France is a valuable trading partner for the United States, and in 2019, the two countries traded more than $138 billion in goods and services. France is the United States’ third largest trading partner in Europe, and in 2020 they made up roughly 1.9% of U.S. trade. The main U.S. exports to France include industrial chemicals, aircraft and engines, electronics, scientific and medical instruments and supplies, and broadcasting equipment. The U.S. is the top destination for French investment, and the U.S. is also the largest foreign investor in France. The two nations have a bilateral convention on investment, and create a tax treaty bilaterally to address the issues of double taxation and tax evasion that can often occur through international trade and investment. Trade and investment with France is a major source of job creation in the United States, further emphasizing the importance of the economic relationship.
    • Counter-Terrorism: France is one of the central allies in the United States’ ‘War on Terror.’ It runs several counter-terrorism initiatives, and provides aid for U.S. operations across the globe.
      • West Africa: This is one of the principal regions where France has been involved in combating terrorism. Operation Serval is a military operation in Mali that began in 2013 which aimed to stop Islamic militants’ push from northern Mali into the country’s center, and towards the capital. The operation received financial and military support from the United States and was a relative success, as it pushed the militants back, but left the country unstable. Mali has undergone two coup d’états since, one in 2020 and one in 2021. To this day, France maintains a smaller presence in the country fighting militants and receives support from the United States.

    This is just one example of counter-terrorism cooperation between the two nations. France has also allied with the United States in other operations, such as through membership in the Combined Task Force 150 which aims to fight maritime terrorism and criminal activity in the Arabian Gulf. 

    Right-Wing Nationalism: The right-wing nationalist movement has gained popularity across Europe in recent years, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French National Rally party is a prime example of this ideology. Despite losing the 2022 French presidential election to Emmanuel Macron, the far-right performed historically well, gaining more than 40% of the vote. Marine Le Pen represents a growing trend of extreme nationalism in France, and has publicly spoken out against the EU and NATO. She believes that French laws should take precedence over laws of international organizations, denounces U.S. influence in France, and is viewed to be sympathetic to Russia. Losing French support in areas such as NATO would be a critical blow to the United States and its allies.

  • Introduction to US-Serbian Relations

    Introduction to US-Serbian Relations

    Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

    Serbia, a country of over ten million people with a unique cultural background and ties to two different global powers, is a key player in US foreign policy. Serbia is a country that has existed as the battleground between Europe and Asia. Serbia was part of the Austria-Hungarian Empire, Ottoman Empire, and Yugoslavia. The breakup of Yugoslavia and the following Yugoslav wars saw the US intervene through NATO and the United Nations. Relations following the war were strained due to the US-led support for the independence of Kosovo, a region full of Albanians who declared independence in 2008. Relations are also strained with the west due to Serbian ties to Moscow and the drawn-out process of joining the EU.  

    Fact Sheet

    • Population: 10,533,871
    • Capital: Belgrade
    • System of Government: Parliamentary republic
    • Chief of state: President Aleksandar Vucic
    • Head of government: Prime Minister Ana Brnabic
    • Primary Language: Serbian (official) 88.1%, Hungarian 3.4%, Bosnian 1.9%, Romani 1.4%, other 3.4%
    • Ethnic demographics: Serb 83.3%, Hungarian 3.5%, Romani 2.1%, Bosniak 2%, other 5.7%,
    • Religious populations: Orthodox 84.6%, Catholic 5%, Muslim 3.1%, Protestant 1%, atheist 1.1%, other 0.8%
    • Real GDP: $125.8 billion (2021 est.)/ GDP per Capita: $18,200 (2020 est.)
    • Gini index: 34.5
    • Freedom score: 62-Partly Free

    Brief History with the U.S.

    Following World War I, the United States under President Woodrow Wilson helped to establish the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, known as Yugoslavia. The United States was the first major power to establish relations with Yugoslavia on February 6, 1919, which lasted until the country was invaded in 1941. The United States along with the United Kingdom unsuccessfully pressured Yugoslavia to side with Allied forces, despite Germany being Yugoslavia’s main trading partner. Yugoslavia eventually joined the Axis. The rise of Communist leader Joseph Tito, caused the US to distance itself from Yugoslavia. Tito eventually distanced Yugoslavia from the USSR, and the US provided some military and economic aid.

    Following Tito’s death, the different ethnic groups in Yugoslavia struggled to find a balance of power, eventually leading to the Yugoslav wars and the dissolution of the country. The United States intervened through NATO and the United Nations initiatives. Clinton oversaw the first use of NATO force which was a controversial decision, as NATO up until that point had behaved as a defensive, not offensive military alliance. President Clinton oversaw the Dayton agreement which ended the conflict and led to the creation of independent nations out of former Yugoslavia around ethnic and linguistic identities.

    Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević lost power (he was later convicted of war crimes), and the United States began providing development aid amounting to 1.1 billion dollars to stimulate economic development and support democratic institutions. Relations began to improve until 2008 when Kosovo, with backing from the US and EU, declared independence under a new constitution. Modern-day US-Serbian relations focus mainly on the issue of Kosovo, and its close ties to Moscow 

    U.S. Strategic Interests:

    • Trade: The United States has a total trade and investment relationship with Serbia amounting to $1.6 trillion every year. Major US businesses invested in Serbia include Coca-Cola, Microsoft, and Panasonic. Much of this investment and growth is thanks to US and EU efforts following devastating periods including the end of the Yugoslav wars, the great recession of 2008, and a crippling storm season in 2014 that ended in negative GDP growth. The United States can leverage this economic reliance on foreign investment to help ensure Serbian cooperation with US interests, such as providing economic benefits in exchange for recognizing Kosovo or implementing sanctions against Russia. 
    • Military: The US has recognized Kosovo as an independent nation since 2008 and relations between Kosovo and Serbia have been slowly improving. However, recent Kosovan policies have exacerbated tensions. A new set of laws requires those traveling from Serbia to Kosovo and Serbs living in Kosovo to carry identification documents to separate themselves from Serbia. The NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) made an official statement that it would intervene if the stability of the region is threatened. The US is in a difficult position as it wants to keep strong relations with Serbia due to its strategic position in the Balkans.

    Diplomatic: Serbia criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but has not implemented sanctions against Russia. Serbia has also been on a slow EU accession process, and may be less enthusiastic about siding with the US and EU allies because the prospect of joining now feels remote and onerous.

  • US Response to the EU Energy Crisis

    US Response to the EU Energy Crisis

    Over the course of the past six months, the United States committed to several EU-U.S. trade agreements to support the European economy in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US aims to reduce the European Union economy’s dependence on Russian gas and oil. The EU and the US have restricted energy imports from Russia, and Russia has responded with energy-related sanctions.

    Background Information

    According to the European Commission, the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters

    of natural gas from Russia, as well as €48 billion worth of Russian crude oil and €23 billion worth of Russian refined oil in 2021. During this same year, crude oil was one of the largest energy imports into the EU, amounting to 62%, followed by natural gas at 25%, the majority of both coming from Russia.

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    Within the EU, Germany is Europe’s largest importer of Russian gas, importing 42.6 billion cubic meters of gas in 2020, followed by Italy who imported 29.2 billion cubic meters of gas in the same year.

    Russian sanctions on EU fuel imports were devastating given the EU’s dependency on natural gas and crude oil. Russia imposed sanctions in May 2022 on European subsidiaries of the state-owned energy giant Gazprom who categorized these sanctions as “a ban on the use of a gas pipeline owned by EuRoPol GAZ to transport gas through Poland [and to the rest of the EU].” Since Russia’s sanctions were implemented, the EU has attempted to find new alternatives to Russian oil and gas, and some—including Germany—are rationing oil consumption to mitigate the sudden loss of fuels. 

    Current Discussion 

    Due to its dependency on Russian fuels, Germany initially opposed EU plans to target the Russian energy sector.

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    However, three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany announced support for an embargo on Russian fuel imports, allowing the EU to pass a more aggressive package of restrictive measures against Russia.

    Adopted in June, the new package has five main elements

    • Restricts oil imports including an immediate embargo on all crude oil and refined oil products and a gradual embargo on petroleum products and seaborn crude oil for countries lacking the infrastructure to fully transition to non-Russian energy. 
    • Gradually restrict Russian oil transportation to “third world” countries.
    • Prohibits financial relations with the Russian government and state-owned entities, as well as with three major Russian banks and one Belarusian bank.
    • Suspends three Russian State outlets from broadcasting as well as advertising for Russian products and services.
    • Expands the list of banned items to include any additional chemicals and technologies that could be used to manufacture chemical weapons as well as halts exports to entities in many sectors, including weapons and scientific research.

    As a result of the increased severity of EU restrictions on Russian gas and fuel, the EU turned to the U.S and began importing liquified natural gasses (LNGs) and other fuel sources. The EU imported 60 billion cubic meters of LNGs from the United States since April 2016, and experienced a surge in U.S. LNG imports since 2019

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    The United States announced it will supply 15 billion cubic meters of LNGs to the EU to mitigate the developing energy crisis abroad. In March 2022, President Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a joint task force to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. 

    The Task Force has two primary objectives

    • Diversifying LNG Supplies in Alignment with Climate Objectives: the United States will work to ensure at least 15 billion cubic meters of LNG exports to the EU in 2022 with the intention of increases in the future and both entities will work to ensure that any and all expansions of LNG import/export infrastructure will prioritize sustainability and efficiency.
    • Reducing Demand for Natural Gas: both the EU and the US commit to decrease dependency on natural gas by accelerating market deployment of clean energy measures through funding advancement of renewable energy technologies.

    Concerns

    This Task Force will cost about $60 billion dollars. Currently, the EU does not have LNG import infrastructure to sustain this ambitious plan. Most of the regasification facilities in the EU are in coastal countries, so central European countries will have difficulty accessing the LNGs after they have been processed. The United States will also need to build more LNG export facilities as current liquefaction plants have reached maximum capacity. The construction of these facilities would cost upwards of $10 billion in investments

  • Understanding US-EU Agricultural Trade Policy

    Understanding US-EU Agricultural Trade Policy

    With both, the U.S. and the EU embrace similar ideologies such as their prioritization of democracy and the maintenance of a liberal economy, and often agree on how to respond to various international conflicts, one being the recent invasion of Ukraine. However, when discussing agricultural trade policy, reaching a consensus that meets both economies’ respective needs has proven difficult.

    Background Information

    Since its conception, the European Union has made it a priority to support farmers, with early EU budgets giving agriculture over 70% of allocated funding. In more recent budgetary breakdowns, the EU has lowered this number to 31% but the priority to protect small farmers is still present in its agricultural systems and policy. For example, in 2016 the EU had around 10.8 million farms with an average size of 47 acres, and the US had 2.1 million farms at an average size of 441 acres. This illustrates differing ideological approaches to agriculture, as the European Union prioritized small farmers while the United States focuses on factory farm agriculture.

    The two economies also differ in attitudes towards food quality and production. Set to expire in 2023, the U.S. Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018—also referred to as The Farm Bill of 2018—increased oversight in agricultural production and addressed food security and climate issues related to the factory farm model. The 2018 Farm Bill provided $428 billion in funding for U.S. farmers over its five-year duration to incentivize responsible agricultural practices.

    In 2020, the European Union announced their Farm to Fork Strategy which prioritizes freshness, fairness, and accessibility of food systems. The Farm to Fork Strategy aims to: 

    • Make food systems more sustainable.
    • Combat the loss of biodiversity throughout the region.
    • Help mitigate the effects of climate change.
    • Protect the accessibility of healthy foods by combating price increases.

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    The EU also announced its willingness to support a global transition to similar models, which directly threatens the models in place in the United States. The Farm to Fork Strategy led to more restrictions on geographical indication labels. These labels provide an official indication of where certain products are produced in order to protect the tradition and history of certain regions’ cuisines and cultures. Much like the general aims of the Farm to Fork Strategy, there is no equivalent to the EU’s geographical indications labels in the United States, creating another point of conflict. 

    Recent Conflicts 

    In recent years, tensions rose when the U.S. enacted tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018. Intended to protect US-based steel and aluminum producers, these tariffs taxed 25% on imports of steel and 10% on imports of aluminum. This import tariff, paired with a threat to tax foreign imports on cheese and champagne, led the French government to announce their intentions to limit trade with countries that did not meet EU agriculture standards, including the United States. 

    The relationship between the United States and the European Union faced another point of conflict with the Appellate Body crisis in 2019. The United States blocked the appointment of new judges to the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s Appellate Body. After two of the three remaining Appellate Body members’ terms expired, the Appellate Body lacked the quorum necessary to hear appeals, which in effect blocked the dispute settlement system, leading many to doubt the WTO’s role in enforcing multilateral trade rules. The U.S. objected to new appointments over concerns the WTO judges acted in a way that infringed on U.S. sovereignty.

    Current Strategies

    President Biden has begun to roll back many restrictions put in place by the previous administration. President Biden lifted the tariffs on steel and aluminum and established the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC aims to demonstrate how a democratic and market-oriented approach to trade and technology can improve the prosperity and quality of life of both EU and U.S. citizens. Stated goals for the TTC include:

    • To cooperate in development and production of new technologies to reflect shared democratic values, including the prioritization of human rights.
    • To ensure that trade policies and the deployment of new technologies reflect and are informed by national security and scientific priorities as well as commercial and economic priorities.
    • To encourage competitiveness within the transatlantic economy and ensure joint leadership in setting global norms for new technologies that are based on U.S.-EU shared democratic values.
    • To retain leadership in STEM for the US and allies whilst fighting authoritarian influence in emerging and digital technology spaces.

    Future Developments

    The European Union and the United States have announced priorities for improving agro-food trade policy moving forward. These priorities include: 

    • Protecting geographical indications (GIs) for exported EU products.
    • Ensuring that the EU standards for agriculture are adhered to and respected.
    • Securing enhanced access to the U.S. market for products such as chocolate, diary, and processed meat products.
    • Addressing barriers that limit U.S. firms’ access to the EU market by further liberalizing bilateral trade agreements and investment ties.

    In an attempt to meet these goals, the EU and the U.S. have proposed a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP). The T-TIP is a comprehensive trade and investment agreement meant to provide more transparency for both entities while maintaining high standards in health and safety. Through the T-TIP, both countries would experience a decrease in restrictive tariffs which would theoretically increase access to foreign goods as well as increase employment in both respective regions. However, many economists are concerned over the lack of transparency surrounding the agreement’s negotiations and fear that the minimal agricultural standards in the United States could negatively impact the economic prosperity of small EU farmers. 

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  • The Future of Nord Stream 2

    The Future of Nord Stream 2

    Background

    Despite a large-scale effort to transition Europe’s energy output to more environmentally friendly sources, the ties between capitalist economies and natural gas have proved too strong to cut entirely at this time. The ongoing necessity of natural gas has tied Europe and Russia together. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of petroleum, has long benefited from being the EU (the third largest economy in the world)’s greatest supplier of crude oil due to its geographic proximity and political ties. This was made more efficient through the construction of Nord Stream, an underwater pipeline completed in 2012 to carry oil from western Russia to northeastern Germany under the Baltic Sea. A second pipeline under construction, which was expected to double Russia’s supply of oil to the EU, has been suspended due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Biden administration was staunchly opposed to the second pipeline due to concerns over the EU’s reliance on Russian energy, and this position has strengthened due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

    Importance of Oil to Russia 

    Prior to Nord Stream, Russian oil companies paid billions of dollars in transit taxis annually to transport petroleum through neighboring Ukraine and Belarus. Nord Stream allowed Russian companies to eliminate the middleman, so to speak, and transport petroleum without paying transit taxes. This reduced the importance of friendly relations between Russia and its former Soviet satellites in the eyes of the Russian government, and impacted Ukraine’s economy. The first pipeline was key in strengthening Russia’s economy while allowing the state to avoid international cooperation.

    The original Nord Stream pipeline also created an important bond between Europe and Russia, especially between Russia and Germany, where the European side of the pipeline ended. In 2020, Europe was Russia’s top trading partner, importing over €150 billion worth of goods (mainly oil) from Russia.

    Relation to Ukraine Crisis 

    This relationship became strained in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, marking the beginning of its Westward expansion into neighboring countries. This aggression made EU member states question Russia’s intentions in eastern Europe, and created conflict between two powers aiming to maintain influence in the region. Since the annexation, Russia has continued to encroach on its neighbors’ autonomy, culminating in the invasion of Ukraine. The EU paused construction of Nord Stream 2 and enacted damaging sanctions in an effort to curb Russian aggression. 

    US Position 

    Russia is not the main supplier of oil for the US. For that reason, among others, the US does not have a similar relationship of economic interdependence with its former Cold War rival. However, the US has a strong and lasting partnership with the EU spanning a host of economic, social, and international interests. For this reason, the EU’s reliance on Russia and EU energy security have an impact on US interest. The EU’s economy depends on energy generated through oil and gas, so Russia has the ability to destabilize the European economy. For the US, Nord Stream 1 and 2 represent a threat because they give Russia, an adversary in many areas of the foreign policy, influence over the US’s strongest diplomatic and economic partners. 

    US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken represented the Biden administration’s stance on the project, stating, “this pipeline is a Russian geopolitical project intended to divide Europe and weaken European energy security.” He concluded, “Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal—for Germany, for Ukraine, and for our Central and Eastern European allies and partners.” 

    Suspending Nord Stream 2 and Impact on the US

    The suspension of Nord Stream 2 is a victory for the US in some ways, as it reduces further cooperation between the EU and Russia. The EU is in the process of rethinking its energy economy, which involves reducing reliance on oil and natural gas in favor of greener energy sources like wind and solar power. However, this transition is expensive and will happen over the course of decades. In the meantime, moving away from Russian energy puts increased importance on oil and gas producing states like Saudi Arabia. The US and the EU have taken a stronger stance against human rights violations by the Saudi government in recent years, and may now be forced to backtrack. 

    The US has felt the effects of suspending progress on the pipeline through soaring gas prices and inflation. While Russia is not the US’ main supplier of oil, the suspension of Nord Stream 2, along with other moves to punish and deter Russian aggression, has thrown off the balance of supply and demand in the domestic and global energy market, forcing the US to cooperate with other oil producing states, like Saudi Arabia, while also ramping up domestic energy production. Many domestic energy sources, like fracking and offshore drilling, have a significant environmental cost.  

  • Introduction to Post-Brexit Britain

    Introduction to Post-Brexit Britain

    Overview of UK–European Union Relations

    The United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) have a long and turbulent history of engagement. The origins of the EU date back to 1945 as a means to bring European nations together to avoid the destruction of World War II from happening again. UK Prime Minister (PM) Winston Churchill endorsed this ideal, calling it “a kind of United States of Europe”. However, the UK declined the invitation to join the European Economic Community (EEC; former name for the EU) in 1957. In 1961, the UK applied to join, and was vetoed twice by French President Charles de Gaulle, who felt the UK was a selfish actor who had prioritized relations with the U.S. over supporting the new union with European relations. In 1973, under PM Edward Heath, the UK successfully entered into the EEC, supported by a 1975 EEC Membership referendum vote with 67% in favor

    A major point of contention between the UK and the EU during its membership was a perceived infringement on UK sovereignty. In the 1980s, the EU was moving towards a more “federal” Europe, with a single currency (the Euro) and universal social policies. This was rejected by PM Margaret Thatcher, who saw these actions as “a European super-state exercising a new dominance”. PM John Major, Thatcher’s successor, opted into the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, which gave increased power to the EU. However, he opted out of both the single currency and many social policies. Under PM Tony Blair, the UK sought to repair some of the strained UK-EU relations by signing the Social Chapter in 1997, which involved progressive social changes long supported by the Labor Party he led. This aligned the UK with EU social policies of the time which prioritized improving equal opportunity in the workplace, social security, workers rights, and improving working conditions by revolutionizing health and safety standards. 

    Following the 2008 financial crisis 2008 and 2011 Euro crisis, the EU sought to create new budgetary policies through treaties. The crisis of the Euro, also known as the European Debt Crisis, began in 2009 when EU member Greece was grappling with high debt levels and a struggling economy, and other EU members provided loans as a bailout. The Greek economy continued to struggle, and the stability of European financial institutions was threatened. PM David Cameron vetoed UK involvement in the pact that sought to address the financial issues, which deviated the UK from EU policies and emboldened euro-skeptics in the UK. Growing discontent in the UK and an uncompromising EU catalyzed the 2016 UK Referendum on EU membership. With a 51.9% majority, the UK voted to leave the EU, beginning what is known as “Brexit.” This vote was divisive, with England and Wales voting to “Leave”, and Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to “Remain”. The UK decision to leave the EU, officially completed in January 2020, put immense strain on UK–EU relations, and UK relations with other allies. 

    Ramifications of Brexit

    1. Trade: the UK no longer has barrier-free access to the EU’s single-market, and the two parties are negotiating a trade agreement. The UK had a vision of a more “Global Britain” free from the constraints of EU membership. However, few trade deals have been signed by a post-Brexit UK. The U.S. is hesitant to engage in trade talks until the final terms of UK–EU relations have been determined, and requires that peace will be maintained between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland before an agreement is finalized. 
    2. Relations between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: Brexit strained the long standing peace on the isle of Ireland, established by the Good Friday Agreement. The Good Friday Agreement ended decades of conflict over governance in Northern Ireland, between two populations making up Northern Ireland, ‘Unionists’ (also known as Loyalists, predominantly Protestants, who were in favor of Northern Ireland being part of the UK) and ‘Nationalists’ (also known as Republicans, predominantly Catholic, who wanted Northern Ireland to be independent from the UK instead joining the Republic of Ireland). The U.S. played a large role in brokering the agreement, which established shared governance between parties in Northern Ireland and recognition of its status as part of the UK. 

    As a result of Brexit, tensions over trade across the land border between the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) and Northern Ireland (no longer an EU member) has sparked uncertainty in particular with Unionists, who feared it could cause separation between Northern Ireland and the UK. The 2021 Northern Ireland Protocol mitigated some tensions, but the UK intends to eventually adjust the protocol to facilitate trade. This resurgence of this issue is causing tension in the U.S.-UK relationship.

    Brexit and U.S.–UK Relations

    President Obama stated the UK would be at the “back of the queue” when it comes to trade should they opt to leave the EU, and he was in favor of the UK maintaining its EU membership. President Trump was in favor of Brexit, and advocated for a tougher stance on the UK’s exit agreement—known as “Hard-Brexit”—which PM Theresa May wanted to avoid. The Biden Administration is navigating a post-Brexit Britain, and he has stressed that relations between the U.S. and the UK are contingent on maintaining peace in Ireland. When the UK announced its intention to change the Northern Ireland Protocol, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stated that Congress “cannot and will not support a bilateral free trade agreement” should the UK violate the agreement.

    The Brookings Institute found U.S. bilateral relations with European partners are highest with the UK, awarding a score of 6.5/10, in contrast with a 5.7 for U.S.-EU relations. In the absence of EU membership, the UK has reoriented its foreign policy to align closer with the U.S. This can be seen through the 2021 Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) Partnership, the New Atlantic Charter, and the UK’s support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. 

    However, the instability of Brexit has reduced the UK’s appeal as a competitive global partner for the U.S., and forced the U.S. to walk the line between supporting a longstanding ally and maintaining relations with a powerful bloc of countries. The UK has more autonomy when making international agreements, in comparison to the EU, but it wields less diplomatic and economic influence. EU agreements require all member states to sign off, but represent a significant, united diplomatic and economic force.

  • Introduction to The New Atlantic Charter

    Introduction to The New Atlantic Charter

    History

    The first Atlantic Charter between the United States and the United Kingdom was signed August 14, 1941 by then-President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill. The Charter marked one of the founding agreements of what was to become the United Nations, and connected two countries around shared principles and policies. Since the conclusion of World War II, the U.S. and the UK have maintained strong diplomatic relations—often referred to as the “Special Relationship”. This Special Relationship commenced in 1946 giving rise to one of the most significant international partnerships of the modern day. 

    The U.S. and the UK’s military and security relations have strengthened through cooperation in conflicts such as the Korean War, the Persian Gulf War, the Iraq War, and military operations in Afghanistan, alongside founding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The U.S. and the UK have often supported similar economic policies, including the shift towards privatization and promotion of capitalism during the Reagan Administration and a UK government led by PM Margaret Thatcher. Ultimately, the two countries remain committed to the protection of democratic values and cooperation against adversaries who fail to recognize or adhere to alliances or institutions. Thus, on June 10, 2021, President Biden and Prime Minister Johnson signed The New Atlantic Charter, reaffirming the historic alliance. 

    Outline of The New Atlantic Charter

    The New Atlantic Charter has eight sections:

    1. Defending democracy be it democratic values, ideals, and institutions that contribute and protect to this form of governance. This paragraph also expands into supporting transparency, the protection of civil society and human rights, and the commitment to protecting an independent media. 
    2. Sustaining international co-operation through developing laws, norms, and strengthening existing institutions to face the challenges of today. This component advocates for a “rules-based” approach to facing the good and bad impacts of emerging technologies, economic development while protecting the workers that enable it, and supporting free trade between countries.
    3. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peaceful resolution to disputes, with both the U.S. and UK uniting and standing against interference with these principles. Much of this alludes to opposing the growing issue of disinformation, election interference, and reaffirming the need for debt transparency and debt relief. Moreover, this paragraph concludes with the commitment to defend lawful international “freedom of navigation” be it by air or seas.
    4. Innovation in Science and Technology, seeking to continue to promote development of these areas to support shared security, create employment domestically, foster global development, and create technologies to be deployed for the support of democratic values. 
    5. Collective security and international stability through reaffirming the shared responsibility to protect these principles in the modern world. This component re-emphasizes both the U.S. and the UK commitment to NATO and its allies, particularly with modern day security threats, be it cyberspace, arms control, and the disarmament or proliferation of nuclear weapons. The notable tone of this paragraph is that these threats are a collective issue for both countries and therefore should be tackled through international cooperation.
    6. Building a sustainable global economy that is free, fair, sustainable, climate-friendly and rules-based. Both countries are committed to fighting corruption, encouraging financial stability and transparency, while working towards fair and environmentally mindful global innovation and competition.
    7. Tackling the climate crisis by recognizing the immediate threat this poses and as such, both the U.S. and the UK seek to prioritize this issue in all their respective international actions.
    8. Addressing health crises through collaboration to advance health systems and protections, to strengthen collective defenses against health threats and assist in others striving to do the same.

    One of the overarching takeaways from the signing of The New Atlantic Charter is the return of diplomacy as the key American tool in international relations, a mechanism long used and endorsed in UK foreign policy actions. Much of the agreement reaffirms prior understandings, but it also attempts to reference the challenges of the twenty-first century, some of which are cited throughout the document.

    The Future

    The New Atlantic Charter signals a new dawn of the U.S.–UK relations at a time when many feel the rules-based world order is at its most vulnerable since World War II. While the charter steers away from naming specific adversaries, each component alludes to the perceived threat China and Russia, and a world that has been permanently changed by COVID-19. Over the past few years, the U.S. and the UK have embodied that vision by expanding their collective presence in the Indo-Pacific Region with the introduction of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) Partnership to counterbalance China, and supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty following Russia’s invasion.

    However, recent data indicates many Americans are concerned about how much focus the U.S. places on global affairs, potentially to the detriment of domestic issues. This suggests a growing U.S. skepticism towards the importance or necessity of agreements with international allies, with a majority favoring a focus towards domestic policy rather than global affairs. At the same time, the UK’s influence on the global stage has been declining since the start of the “Special Relationship”. Many who support an outward-facing U.S. presence feel the U.S. needs to expand relations with other countries who can bring more to the table.

  • Failures and Successes of the EU

    Failures and Successes of the EU

    Introduction

    The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union founded in the aftermath of World War II. The mass violence of the war left many Europeans feeling unsure of the future of the continent. With calls for cooperation increasing, new organizations sprung up across Europe in an effort to foster trust between nations and prevent war from breaking out again. These organizations formed the basis of what eventually became known as the EU in 1993. The union’s principal goals are the promotion of peace, freedom, security and justice for its citizens, as well as greater economic stability and growth within its market.

    The EU is divided into four main institutions: the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union and the European Council. The European Commission is the executive body of the EU—they propose new laws and ensure these laws are properly implemented if they are approved. The Council of the European Union and the European Parliament discuss, and adopt or reject, new laws. The key difference between the two organizations is that the European Parliament represents citizens of the EU, and is made up of democratically elected representatives, while the Council of the European Union represents the governments of EU members, and is made up of national ministers appointed by their country. The European Council is made up of political leaders of EU member countries and is responsible for defining the goals and overall priorities of the EU.

    The EU, as of 2022, has twenty-seven member countries. Several other countries are part of trade deals or other alliances with the EU and several other countries are considered candidates for membership.

    History of the EU

    • 1951: West Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands form the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). This organization requires all member countries to place their coal and steel industries under a single management, easing distrust after WWII.
    • 1957: The Treaties of Rome are signed by the same six members of the ECSC, creating the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom).
    • 1958: The European Parliament is created to facilitate discussion between the three European communities.
    • 1960: The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) is created to encourage and facilitate trade between European countries not in the EEC.
    • 1965: The Merger Treaty is signed, merging the executives of the three major European communities into a single administration called “The European Communities”.
    • 1992-1993: The Maastricht Treaty is signed in 1992, officially creating the European Union when it came into effect in 1993. This treaty established a common currency — the Euro — and introduced the concept of European citizenship. The EU’s single market also launched in 1993.
    • 2007: The Treaty of Lisbon is signed, giving greater power to the European Parliament. They now elect the head of the EU’s Commission and are responsible for establishing the EU’s budget.
    • 2016: The UK votes to leave the EU and they officially leave the alliance in 2020.

    Successes

    1. Post-WWII: After WWII, Europe was fractured. Western European countries sought to establish and strengthen relationships with each other. The EU, in its earliest forms, accomplished its difficult goal of reconciliation and unity between member nations through various trade deals and intergovernmental organizations. To this day, no two EU member nations have ever been engaged in an armed conflict against one another.
    2. Economic Cooperation: The EU is the world’s largest single market. The vast majority of trade barriers between EU member states have been removed, allowing for the free movement of goods, services, capital and people across the organization’s borders. This allows for greater economic competition and promotes economic growth. However, it can be challenging to balance competing economic interests among member states, especially when it comes to monetary policy. Disputes occur when some nations are experiencing inflation and others are experiencing sluggish economic growth, which traditionally require different monetary responses.
    3. Unified European Identity: The EU not only creates a forum discussion, it unifies the continent politically and economically. All citizens of member nations of the EU are considered EU citizens, uniting people from across the continent under a set of rights, which guarantee them equal treatment no matter which EU state they are in. EU citizens’ rights are guaranteed in their Charter of Fundamental Rights and include a wide range of privacy, employment, consumer and human rights, as well as the right to vote in European Parliament elections.
    4. Activism: The EU has taken a staunch stance against injustice and inequality, both within their borders and beyond. The EU provides aid for millions across the globe, and collectively, the union and its member countries are the largest donor of humanitarian aid in the world. The EU has several programs providing food, shelter, water, healthcare and other forms of stability for more than eighty countries. The EU won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.

    Failures

    1. Democratic Legitimacy: While EU citizens vote in EU Parliament elections, most EU representatives are not democratically elected. In addition, voter turnout for EU Parliament elections has been decreasing since the Parliament was created and in 2019, only 50.66% of eligible EU voters participated. Many still believe that it fails to represent the average EU citizen and that it is not being held accountable for its decisions.
    2. Yugoslav Wars: With the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, the EU was faced with its first major crisis since the end of the Cold War. The early peace negotiations organized by the EU were mismanaged and unorganized, and the EU failed to end the fighting or find a solution to the conflict. This was largely due to continual disagreement among member states, which also led to delays in military and humanitarian aid. The lack of a unified policy ultimately exacerbated the wars, leading to longer conflict, a larger death toll, and greater economic and material damages.
    3. Right-wing Nationalism: In recent years right-wing parties have gained influence across Europe. A central focus of many of these parties is the maintenance of their state identity and interests, or nationalism. International organizations, like the EU, often do not align with countries’ national interests. Euroscepticism, or political opposition to the EU, has increased in recent years in countries such as France, Poland and Hungary. Nationalism was also a central reason for the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU. These sentiments threaten the credibility and stability of the union, and by failing to address them, the EU, and its place in Europe is weakened.
    4. Covid-19: The health policy of the EU in response to the global Covid-19 pandemic was somewhat successful in its economic response, but largely a failure in terms of healthcare — specifically their vaccine rollout. Vaccine distribution across the EU was slow and poorly coordinated. This led to an increased death toll and greater economic loss.

    The EU and the United States

    The European Union and the United States have a close relationship defined by peace and cooperation. Relations between the two are further strengthened by the existence of NATO, which includes many of the same members of the EU, and the United States. The U.S. and the EU are the largest economic and military powers in the world, dominating trade and leading many global diplomatic and political discussions. What the EU does therefore greatly impacts the United States—and vice versa. In order to facilitate this relationship, members of the EU Parliament and the U.S. House of Representatives meet biannually to discuss a wide range of topics from foreign affairs to cyber security. This is known as the Transatlantic Legislators Dialogue, and it allows both delegations to establish a united statement and policy on certain issues.

    The Future of the EU

    As the Ukraine War continues, the EU enters a new challenge. The war has become something for the EU to rally against, and has patched up some of the divides created by growing Euroscepticism across the continent. However, the EU’s response has still been lacking. Because all EU decisions must be agreed upon by all members, and some nations—notably Hungary—remain staunchly against stricter sanctions for Russia, the EU’s overall economic response has been weak.

    Beyond the war in Ukraine, the EU will have to face many additional challenges in the coming years. With threats to leave by member nations like Hungary, the EU may see more countries depart like the UK. The EU will also be tasked with addressing issues of immigration, inflation, climate change and healthcare. The EU’s response to these concerns as well as the Ukraine War will define their future status.

  • Failures and Successes of NATO

    Failures and Successes of NATO

    Introduction

    NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a military and political alliance founded in 1949 and dedicated to ensuring the security and freedom of its members. As the Cold War took shape and the Soviet Union threatened European governments, the founding countries of NATO determined that a transatlantic alliance was necessary to both deter Soviet aggression and promote political integration rather than militarism. In the decades since, NATO has grown in structure and members into the organization it is today. The primary political council of NATO is the North Atlantic Council (NAC), and it is chaired by NATO’s Secretary General. Each member has a seat on this council and all decisions are made by consensus, so that any decision made by NATO reflects the will of all members. If a decision reached under the NAC or a political subcommittee has military implications, the Military Committee is responsible for giving expert advice to the NAC and for organizing and carrying out NATO’s military operations. 

    The United States is the largest financial contributor to NATO and a key member of the alliance. The alliance promotes democratic ideas and peaceful conflict resolution around the world. Countries looking to join must have a functioning democratic government and a commitment to peacefully resolve conflict. With a large network of members and resources, NATO aims to hold its members to a standard of democracy and intervenes to defuse conflicts before they happen. However, there is continuous debate over how to handle NATO member states experiencing democratic backsliding. In addition, conflict is deterred by the collective defense aspect of NATO, where an attack on one member is an attack on all members. Despite its shortcomings and the challenges it faces, it is often considered to be one of the most successful international alliances in history.

    There are currently thirty members of NATO and several countries are aspiring to join. Other countries are engaged in working partnerships with the alliance, while not being members.

    Source: Statista

    A Brief History

    • 1949: As communism spread across Europe, and the Soviet’s influence increased, the United States’ desire for a security treaty with Western Europe outside of the UN’s Security Council (where the USSR held veto power) led to the creation of NATO.
    • 1955: In response to West Germany joining NATO, the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern European countries formed the Warsaw Pact.
    • 1991: The Soviet Union collapsed, leading to the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. The North Atlantic Cooperation Council was created as a platform for cooperation between old Warsaw Pact members and NATO.
    • 1995: NATO became involved in its first ever crisis response operation, leading the Implementation Force, a peace enforcement force during the Bosnian War.
    • 2001: 9/11 resulted in NATO invoking Article 5 of the Washington Treaty for the first, and only, time. Article 5 states that “an attack against one… shall be considered an attack against them all.” NATO launched several counter-terrorism initiatives and deployed military forces to Afghanistan.
    • 2003: NATO takes control of the International Security Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, a UN-mandated security force responsible for ensuring the Afghan government’s authority.
    • 2014: NATO suspends most relations with Russia over their illegal annexation of Crimea.

    Successes

    1. The Cold War: During the Cold War, NATO’s efforts were centered around three goals: controlling the Soviet Union, dissuading militant nationalism and communism across Europe, and establishing greater European political unity. The alliance played a major role in maintaining the tense peace of the Cold War and ensuring the war remained ‘cold’. With the end of the war, NATO worked to further maintain peace. They established the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and, in 1997, NATO encouraged bilateral discussion between the United States and Russia through the Founding Act.
    2. Modern Day Protection: Today, NATO continues to provide a level of protection for its members. Since its founding, a NATO member has only been attacked and evoked Article 5 once (the United States after 9/11). Member countries are afforded collective security, just as NATO originally sought to do. Additionally, NATO has created a global network of more than 40 countries and other partners around the globe—ranging from the African Union to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). This network provides NATO support in its crisis management operations, ranging from aid operations such as its delivery of relief supplies after the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake to counter-terrorism operations in the Mediterranean and the coast of Somalia.
    3. The Ukraine War: NATO has publicly denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine and NATO member countries and allies have provided substantial aid to Ukraine. The United States has contributed roughly $54 billion to Ukraine. Other countries have provided humanitarian aid and support for the more than 5 million refugees of the war. The Ukraine war has reaffirmed the importance of NATO, and even spurred Finland and Sweden to increase their efforts to join the alliance. These countries’ membership would strengthen the alliance militarily through increased air and submarine capabilities, allowing for NATO to further dissuade Russian aggression.

    Failures

    1. Funding Issues: In 2006, NATO Defense Ministers agreed to a commitment that 2% of their countries’ GDP would be allocated towards defense spending. However, the majority of NATO members do not meet this goal. Currently, the United States accounts for over two-thirds of the alliance’s defense spending.
    2. Afghanistan: After 9/11, NATO was a considerable presence in Afghanistan, and their forces were crucial in their support of the Afghan government. When President Donald Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban in 2020, both NATO and American troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan. What followed was an immediate fall in the Afghan government at the hands of the Taliban. Despite the two decades NATO spent in Afghanistan, no long term solution was reached, and without their presence, the nation’s former government could not survive.
    3. Right-Wing Nationalism: With the spread of right-wing nationalism across Europe, discontent with international institutions like NATO and the EU grows. If right-wing nationalist movements continue to increase in popularity across Europe, there could be increased calls for countries to leave institutions like NATO. The challenge NATO faces now is how to combat and address their criticism, and how to unify a divided Europe.
    4. Russian Aggression: Despite supposed verbal promises to Russia that it would not expand to the east, NATO has admitted several former Warsaw Pact members since the fall of the Soviet Union. Now, with NATO members bordering Russia and the promise of further expansion, Russia feels increasingly threatened. The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO has been cited as a significant reason for Vladmir Putin’s invasion of the country.

    The Future of NATO

    As the war in Ukraine continues, NATO is more relevant now than it has been in decades. NATO plays a role in distributing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the alliance will be influential in the outcome of the war. NATO serves as a means of collective defense and security against Russia and the increasing threat to international order that they represent. With debates over how NATO can best assist Ukraine, and how to best avoid conflicts such as this in the future, NATO will have to revisit its current deterrence strategy in the upcoming years. Also at play is the growing role of China on the world stage. NATO must consider that the world does not revolve solely around the Euro-Atlantic region, and address questions about its role outside this region and across the globe. NATO continues to be essential towards not only the security of its members including the United States, but to the world.