U.S’s withdrawal in Afghanistan in 2021
In 2021, after twenty years of military occupation, the United States and international forces departed Afghanistan. President Biden remarked: “It’s time to end America’s longest war”. After the withdrawal event, the local Afghan government disbanded, and the Taliban, an Islamic extremist group that formerly took control of the nation, retook power.
Many experts supported the decision, calling it “a wise strategic choice that took significant political courage”. Despite continuous investments in Afghanistan, many believed the United States could not change the course of political dynamics in this country. For that reason, this withdrawal would result in the most efficient outcome for the U.S and its allies.
Other experts regard the U.S’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan as a sign of weakened American strength in the international arena. Experts speculate that a withdrawal from Afghanistan might potentially signal other withdrawals in other arenas of conflict in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Under the context of the South China Sea conflict, ASEAN countries might face a decline in U.S support, thus they have to find new ways to circumvent Chinese aggression. As a result, such withdrawals can have serious impacts on aspects of United States-ASEAN relations.
U.S support for ASEAN nations in the South China Sea conflict
The end of America’s longest war had major implications for allies around the world, including in relation to U.S. foreign policy in the South China Sea conflict. Since the early 2010s, China has made authoritative claims in the South China Sea to strengthen its authority in the region. China claimed possession of the estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under the sea. These claims and other militaristic actions antagonized relations with neighboring states including Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. According to the ASEAN countries and the United States, within the framework of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), many of China’s claims were invalid.
To ensure regional political security as well as to secure its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has supported its Southeast Asian partners to combat China’s aggression. U.S allies like Japan also sold equipment and combat ships to the Philippines and Vietnam. In a 2020 press release, Secretary of State Pompeo declared “the world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire. America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law”. The U.S’s proactive approach and continuous support within the span of this conflict signaled the United States’ strong advocacy for ASEAN allies in military conflicts with China.
Future of U.S- ASEAN relations post-Afghanistan withdrawal
In reality, most countries in Southeast Asia did not see this withdrawal as a major shift in U.S foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region. While it does signal a temporarily weakened America, it did not alter the U.S’s long term goals in the Indo-Pacific region. Some Southeast Asian policy experts believe the withdrawal might give Southeast Asia the full attention they believe it deserves given U.S-China’s competing interest in the region.
While the Afghanistan withdrawal seemed abrupt, most Southeast Asian nations did not see it as a surprise. In 2011, the Obama administration indicated the U.S. would withdraw from the Middle East to focus on the Asia-Pacific. This move was part of the United States’ foreign policy strategy to withdraw from “forever wars”. Overall, the withdrawal was the final result of a decade-long foreign policy.
The United States will likely continue and even strengthen its multi-lateral support for ASEAN, especially in disputes such as the South China Sea conflict. The United States will continue to be a strong advocate for other ASEAN claimants in the face of China’s assertive actions. Following Biden’s inauguration and Afghanistan’s withdrawal in 2021, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam, two key ASEAN partners. The trip’s goal was to cement U.S relationships with ASEAN nations after the complications of the Afghanistan withdrawal. According to NPR, one senior administration official in the Biden administration remarked: “Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific are really important and that’s why she’s going”. In addition, during her visit, Harris confirmed that the United States will continue to “bolster economic and security ties with its Southeast Asian countries”.
