The “Northern Triangle” compromises the three Central American nations of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Despite their small size, these countries have played an outsized role in U.S. foreign and domestic politics due to their strategic location in the Western Hemisphere. It is estimated that the U.S. has directly or indirectly intervened in Central America nineteen times between 1898 and 1994. Traditionally, the U.S. has had a military presence in the Northern Triangle, particularly during the Cold War, as Washington supported counterinsurgency campaigns in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.
Source: Europa
In recent years, American involvement in the region has shifted to encompass a wider range of interests such as protecting trade, promoting human rights and economic growth, reducing emigration, combating drug-trafficking and corruption, and containing Chinese influence in the region. As a result, the U.S. has a uniquely intertwined relationship with the Northern Triangle, to the extent that the economic and political conditions in the U.S. have a major impact on the region and vice versa. Increasingly, emigration is shaping this relationship, as Central Americans escape violence and poverty. With more than 3.5 million Central Americans living in the U.S., the Northern Triangle economies heavily rely on remittances from abroad. They make up 21% of the region’s economic output. In addition, the number of Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans who migrate to the U.S. has averaged 311,000 annually in recent years. The recent—and unprecedented—number of Central Americans seeking asylum in the U.S. attests to the reciprocal relationship these countries have, and this interconnectedness will likely intensify in the upcoming years.
The most recent U.S. approach to migration from the Northern Triangle has been a combination of changes in immigration law combined with conditional development aid. The Trump administration placed an emphasis on reducing migration. After a spike in the number of migrants and asylum-seekers, President Trump demanded that the governments of northern Central America deter its citizens from embarking upon their journey to the U.S. and signed “Third Safe Country” agreements that obliged these countries to receive U.S. deportees. He also dramatically reduced aid to the region. Although the Biden administration has rescinded the asylum agreements, it has upheld this deterrence approach while increasing investment to “address the root causes of migration.” President Biden recently approved a $4 billion plan to reduce migration by combating corruption and drug-trafficking and implementing development projects.
