Anti-satellite weapons, or ASATs, are a growing topic of international concern in the 21st century. These weapons usually consist of a projectile, launched into space on a missile, for the purpose of destroying a target satellite in low Earth orbit. The kinetic impact of an ASAT projectile into its target satellite can create millions of long-lived, microscopic pieces of debris. This millimeter-scale debris poses the highest risk of mission-ending damage to orbiting satellites, and, with over 100 million pieces of debris on the millimeter scale or larger, states and organizations have an interest in decreasing the risk to satellites by preventing the creation of further debris. ASAT tests—which are known to produce large volumes of small, difficult-to-track debris – frequently face international condemnation and rebuke, as they are seen to further endanger and militarize the shared domain of space. Several states, including the US, China, India, and Russia have ASAT capabilities, and all have tested these weapons on their own satellites in the last 20 years. Each state has its own public reasons for possessing such capabilities, and takes a unique approach to the issue of ASAT testing.
Current National Positions on ASAT Testing
The US announced a unilateral moratorium on ASAT testing in 2021, and last tested its capabilities in 2008. The US has sought to act as a global peacemaker on the issue, using the moratorium to progress efforts on banning destructive ASAT testing. The Biden administration is also pursuing a parallel strategy of improving US defenses to ASATs and achieving non-destructive means of disabling satellites.
Russia has tested its ASAT weapons as recently as November of 2021, and faced swift international backlash, including calls for multilateral treaties and bans on destructive ASATs. The negative response was mainly due to the threat to satellites from the created debris, even requiring an emergency avoidance maneuver by the International Space Station. Russia had its own political motives for conducting the test. It wanted to establish and display these capabilities before any treaties or regulations were established on the matter. States consider the advantages and potential negative consequences before testing, as the backlash might not be more significant than the strategic benefits a state gains from performing an ASAT test.
China and India have both tested ASATs as well, with China last performing a destructive ASAT test in 2007. Despite a claimed opposition to the militarization of space, the US Pentagon says China is building up an “arsenal” of ASAT capabilities. China used the familiar reasonings of national defense and security to justify the test, which faced similar criticism to the Russian test for its long-lived debris in relatively high orbit. India, which claimed to be confronting the regional threat of Chinese ASATs among other security concerns, completed a test in March 2019. The international response was milder, but India faced some domestic opposition to the test not seen in other countries.
Future Developments
The future of ASAT weapons will be complex, as states have interests in maintaining such capabilities for defense while simultaneously seeking to prevent their testing and use due to space debris concerns. Many developments in ASAT tech are leading towards ground-based, non-destructive methods that use electronic systems to jam or disable satellites. This appears to be the future of ASATs, and would enable a state to sign treaties banning destructive ASAT testing without compromising their national defense interests against similarly-armed states. Such treaties are already being pursued and gaining the support of states and organizations. The reduction in space debris could be a welcome change for all states with satellites and other interests in space, who are equally at risk from the millions of pieces of space junk that a country’s ASATs are responsible for. When it comes to global security in space, destructive ASATs and the debris they create are part of the problem, not the solution.
