The EU-Turkey Migration Agreement was a 2016 agreement made between the 28 European Union member states and the Republic of Turkey to decrease crossings on the Greece-Turkey border. The agreement is still in effect in 2021.

Context of the Agreement

European nations experienced an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in 2015 when hundreds of thousands of migrants traveled from the Middle East and North Africa to apply for asylum. The leading cause of this crisis was the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011. By 2015, nonstate actors and extremist groups controlled more than half of the country, so millions of Syrians fled. In addition to Syria, protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan contributed to the surge in asylum applications. At the peak of the crisis in 2015, 1.3 million people filed asylum applications in the European Union. The Greek-Turkey land and maritime border became a main pathway for those seeking to enter the EU.

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Asylum_statistics

The European Union has a similar asylum policy to the United States; any person with a well-founded fear of persecution on account of “race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership of a particular social group,” can apply for protection from an EU-member state if they are unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin. This definition does not automatically apply to those fleeing violence and war, so EU law includes a stipulation for “subsidiary protection,” where a person who does not qualify through the traditional pathway but can demonstrate they would suffer a real risk of serious harm if returned to their country also qualifies for protection. European Union member states granted protection through both pathways during the humanitarian crisis.

Logistics of the Agreement

The agreement had three main components:

1. All new “irregular migrants” crossing to Greece via Turkey could be returned to Turkey, as well as asylum seekers in Greece whose applications were denied. In exchange, for every irregular migrant returned to Turkey, one Syrian would be resettled in the EU. “Irregular migrants” was not defined in the agreement, but it is generally accepted to mean those without visas to enter Greece, which would include asylum seekers. This was designed to incentivize displaced people to stay in Turkey, rather than cross to Greece and apply for protection there. Since the agreement came into force, 28,000 Syrians have been resettled in the EU from Turkey through the exchange agreement.
2. The European Union would provide €6 billion ($7.1 billion) to Turkey for refugee aid.
3. Turkey and the European Union would work to revitalize cooperation through trade agreements, visa liberalization, and Turkey’s accession to the EU.

Since the agreement was implemented, irregular migration to Greece has decreased 97%

European Perspective

Arguments in support:

1. Humanitarian concerns: as asylum seekers flooded into the Greek islands, the conditions in refugee camps and shelters deteriorated. The camps became overcrowded and unsanitary, and it was seen as vital to stem the flow of migrants for the wellbeing of those already there. In addition, many asylum seekers drowned attempting to sail to Greek islands, or else paid smugglers to transport them and fell victim to human trafficking. 
2. Political concerns: there was a widespread perception among citizens of member states that the European Union was failing to handle the crisis. A 2016 survey found that citizens overwhelmingly disapproved of the EU response, with attitudes ranging from 60 to 80% disapproving and reaching as high as 95% disapproving among Greek citizens. Governments and citizens felt overwhelmed by the sheer number of asylum seekers, and were concerned about the economic burden and a potential strain on the social safety net. The United Kingdom voted to leave the EU in 2016 (also known as “Brexit”) and the refugee issue and immigration concerns played a large role in that decision. All of these factors contributed to a desire to take immediate action.

Arguments in opposition:

1. Outsourcing asylum: human rights organizations and activists objected to the agreement because they felt it allowed European Union member states to abdicate their obligation to those in need of international protection. The agreement effectively created a “buffer state” blocking asylum seekers from applying for international protection. Following the Turkey agreement, the European Union came to a similar deal with Libya.
2. Turkey as a “safe country”: recent reports suggest that Syrians and other displaced people in Turkey do not have access to resources to fulfill basic human needs. Many are homeless or living in dilapidated housing, and rely on charity or work in the informal sector. In addition, human rights organizations have documented the Turkish government forcibly relocating refugees back to Syria, violating the international principle of “non refoulement,” which means refugees should not be forced to return to a country where they will face persecution. Because of these factors, some argue that Turkey is not itself a safe country, and therefore returning refugees to Turkey also violates the non refoulement principle.

Turkish Perspective

Arguments in support:

1. Improve cooperation with the EU: the agreement included a provision to discuss visa liberalization, meaning that Turkish citizens would be able to enter the Schengen Area without applying for a visa in advance. In addition, the EU and Turkey currently have a Customs Union which allows for tariff-free trade with several exceptions; part of the agreement involves updating the Union for improved trade relations. Finally, the agreement specifically mentions working towards Turkey’s accession to the European Union, however there are doubts about whether either side really believed this would come to pass. Turkey had not met the economic and political standards needed to join the EU at the time of the agreement, and subsequently experienced democratic backsliding which made joining the EU even more distant.
2. Funding for refugee aid: as part of the agreement, Turkey received €6 billion to fund refugee aid and resettlement, relieving some of the pressure on the government.
3. Strong lever in international negotiations: Turkey is currently working to project influence in its neighborhood by playing a larger role in the outcome of conflicts in the region. This brings it into conflict with the European Union in the protracted Cyprus conflict and the Libyan Civil War, among others. The 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey make for a powerful bargaining chip in EU-Turkey negotiations. In March of 2020, Turkey opened the border with Greece and actively pushed for migrants to cross, after a disagreement over military strategy in Syria.

Arguments in opposition:

1. Same political concerns: although Turkey was initially welcoming to refugees, after five years, 3.6 million refugees, and no end in sight, public approval has turned decidedly negative. Refugees tend to be conservative and religious, while a large portion of the Turkish middle and upper classes are secular and more progressive, creating a culture clash. In addition, Turkey’s economy was struggling even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on the tourism industry, which accounts for 12% of Turkey’s GDP. In the last election, the governing AKP party experienced significant losses which were largely attributed to economic and refugee issues.
2. Costs outweigh benefits: the Turkish government estimates it has spent €35 billion on refugee resettlement and aid, far outpacing the EU commitment of €6 billion. In addition, Turkey is far from  from meeting EU accession targets and no progress has been made on the visa liberalization as of yet.

Impact and Future Developments

The immediate impact of the agreement was a dramatic decrease in the crossings from Turkey to Greece (97% down two years out). In the longer term, Turkey-EU relations have continued to worsen despite the immigration cooperation, due to a lack of strategic alignment on regional issues. Despite the agreement, European citizens overwhelmingly disapprove of government handling of the refugee crisis. This led to the rise of anti-immigrant parties across Europe. It is possible that without the agreement, disapproval with the government response would be even higher.

In the future, the situation in Turkey for refugees is likely to devolve. Turkish citizens want to see progress on the issue, but Syria is still largely unsafe for refugees to return. There have been some reports that the Turkish government is deporting Syrians and returning them to unsafe areas—these reports are denied by Turkey.