In 2019 alone, 2,000 natural disasters displaced roughly 24.9 million people worldwide. By 2050, 150 to 200 million people will likely be displaced as a result of “climate shocks” – extreme weather events caused by climate change that impact the durability and sustainability of communities. While most displaced populations will migrate within their home country, the number of international migrants is projected to increase as climate change tests countries’ resiliency through the duration of the 21st century.
Sea level rise as a result of global temperature increase poses an extreme risk of flooding to those living in low-altitude and coastal areas. In Bangladesh, one of a handful of countries that have already begun to experience climate migration, the poorest citizens tend to live in the low-lying coastal zones that are most impacted by flooding. Bangladesh’s susceptibility to drought, clean water shortages, cyclones, floods, and coastal and delta erosion cause an estimated 500,000 people to migrate to urban areas every year. The vast majority of internal migrants arrive in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Narayanganj, causing these cities to reach abnormally high population densities, decreasing living standards. Cities like these have a limited capacity for providing clean water, shelter, and employment to hundreds of thousands of climate migrants fleeing the flooded coasts.
Climate processes such as water scarcity, sea level rise, drought, salinization, and eutrophication (leaching of chemicals into water sources) are major causes of forced migration. Climate processes involve years of shifting environments, but climate events like flooding, storms, and wildfires, can degrade entire habitats in a matter of days and impact entire populations for decades. Physical barriers such as seawalls, levees, and dams provide temporary relief, but implementing long-term solutions to climate change is the only way to subdue forced climate migration. Many countries’ governments, however, do not recognize these climate processes as being directly related to climate change, which limits their willingness and ability to implement long-term solutions.
The existence of climate change is undisputed by 97% of the scientific community, but its effects on the human population are still argued. Complexities at the intersection between climate change, conflict, and displacement allow for debate over whether climate migration is a solution or a problem itself. Some scientists have referred to climate migration as an “adaptation strategy” because it presents itself as a temporary solution to habitat change and destruction. Others argue that as climate change affects the availability of natural resources like drinkable water, climate migrants will arrive in urban areas that do not have the means to provide for the increase in population.
Historically, climate migration has largely taken place internally, leading to the prioritization of national protocols. Nations will be forced to address climate migration domestically as well as internationally. Bangladesh has put in place a Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF), which allocates $70 million (USD) to fund government projects that will mitigate the adverse effects of internal climate migration as well as prevent communities from reaching the point of forced migration. Future projections of displaced people led the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 2011 to determine that an expected influx of immigrants to the U.S was a result of water scarcity and consequential conflicts resulting from resource depletion. Migration conditions resulting from climate shocks and processes have exacerbated conflict and instability in countries, resulting in more severe political and humanitarian issues.
Resiliency plans are one of the key steps in addressing climate migration. One proposed strategy is to limit the climate change drivers that are pushing populations out of their homes, namely greenhouse gas emissions. However, both financial constraints and the time it takes for governments to implement strategies that could potentially reduce emissions and slow the process of climate change are major limitations, and many scientists believe that time is running out. A possible solution would be to instead focus funding on facilitating climate migration. Studies show that planned climate migration leads households to become more resilient in the face of climate shocks, whereas forced and sudden climate migration tends to lead to household vulnerability. Bangladesh’s CCTF plan works by providing the resources for households to understand their local risk of climate shocks, as well as by creating avenues that assist in planning migration ahead of time. This strategy may significantly reduce the need for emergency migration and post-disaster relief efforts.
Climate change disproportionately impacts countries and communities, which are historically marginalized, including non-industrial states which are the least responsible for the changing environment. Unfortunately, addressing the issue of forced migration does not tackle concerns over resource scarcity, which these disadvantaged countries will likely suffer from the most. Confronting the challenges associated with climate change and climate migration will require more international cooperation and resiliency planning that takes into consideration those countries that do not have the resources to prepare for the future.
